Don't worry about being marked down. I gave you 5 stars as well for asking an intelligent question and simply being smart enough to look into this play.

I actually find that many good Canadian Oil & Gas explorers/small producers do not get the valuations that they deserve. But that usually ends abruptly when oil prices run up or an exceptionally good flow rate is announce for a new well or rumours of buyouts emerge, etc...

It's impossible to time these things. If we could then we'd all get rich the same way at the same time and nobody would have to work. It's best to just find companies that have good fundamentals, good management, growing production and reserves, and that continue to successfully drill their land as well as add more parcels to it.

ARW is doing all those things and will be over 1,000 BOPD by the end of 2012. You KNOW the share price will be higher at the end of the year, but guessing when the 5 or 6 days will be that will have the most dramatic moves sending it up is foolish. Just buy enough shares to feel comfortable with and sit on them a few quarters. I'd give the same advice for investing in any junior O&G firm.