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Message: Back By Popular Demand

Back By Popular Demand

posted on Aug 19, 2008 11:15AM

Once again I would like to thank those posters who put in a good word for me in order to get me reinstated. I enjoyed reading the comments greatly.

It certainly is easier to get a message out now that I do not need to go through a third party. Speaking of which, I was just commenting to the Widow yesterday how the volume in ARU trading was drying up fast. I postulated that we would be seeing some kind of news release or report soon and what do you know, like clock work, the very next day out comes one.

Extremely impressive results one again, as usual. Now, being a Mining engineer with around 20 years of experience I would like to give my opinion on this latest news release.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha, excuse me I once again had a laughing fit.

For those readers that are not familiar with 43-101 resource to reserve classifications and the criteria involved in determining them, then let me give you some general information.

The various classifications of ore reserves represent probabilities that the stated estimates of grade and tonnage actualy exist as determined by a qualified person. Resource catagory, represents the least probability that the actual estimate is correct and reserves representing the estimate with the highest degree of probability.

While most retail investors tend to look at the negative side and think somehow the number given in an 43-101 estimate represents the most the deposit could contain. This is far from the truth. The fact is that there is just as good a chance that the deposit could contain more mineral in the deoposit than less. This is how statistics works. In fact, because of the concervative nature in handling the data and modeling ore bodies , the probability of the amount of ore being greater than predicted is actually much more likely.

There is many criteria involved in the determination of a 43-101 estimate. Some of this criteria is based on type, continueity, size, geology etc. of the deposit. It is with such information that the initial spacing of diamond drill holes should be set, as information is interpreted from the diamond drill holes and greater understanding of the deposit and host rock is determined, then the spacing of the holes can be modified to reflect in the qualified persons opinion, the amount of holes needed to represent the various 43-101 catagories. Much of it depends on the judgement of the determining geologists opinion rather than hard set down rules.

For instance, I have worked in many mines, including 4 gold mines. Typically in an underground narrow vein pressure injected gold mine you rarely ever see a gold vein greater than 3 - 4 meters in width. Most run in the 2 meters and less range. FDN is such a deposit, though there is nothing typical about it, which is why it is such an extrodinary find.

Now I can not recall in any of the mines I worked that a greater than 25m diamond drill spacing was required in order to classify the ore in reserve status. In fact, I know of many instances where production decisions where made on a lot less than a 50m spacing.

However, even if you say that you need a 25 m spacing, in order to just get to the indicated catagory in a typical narrow vein gold mine, which I will say for ease of math has a vein width untypically of 5m then that represents a ration of length to width of 5:1

The folllowing are what I believe are the key statements from ARU's latest press release. To put it nicely, I somehow fail to grasp the logic in them hahahahahahahaha.



/ "The new drill results confirm the continuity of geology and grade in the
central part of FDN," said Patrick F.N. Anderson, President and CEO. "/

Yet, somehow this does not warrant an increase in 43-101 catagory of that part of the ore body from resource catagory. Even though continuity of grade and geology is a key parameter in determining the accuracy of any 43-101 estimate.

/Our consultants have also advised us that they do not anticipate the currently
completed drilling will result in a significant material change in the tonnage
or grade of the mineral resources at the deposit."/

Refer to my above comment.

/ With the results reported here, data for 141 diamond drill holes at FDN
have been released, only 85 of which were complete and included in the initial
Inferred Mineral Resource released in October 2007. While drilling operations
have been suspended since April 2008, results for drill holes completed prior
to the suspension will be released as analytical data are received, validated
and compiled./

Those long time holders of ARU will remember the good old day's as ARU climbed from 0.60 to 43 dollars. They will also remember that back then when ARU had little more than a couple of hand portable drillls we got core results on average around every 6 weeks. We were also given nice updates of the visual inspections of core that looked particularly promising or had VG in it, prior to the assays coming out. My, my ,my, how times have changed hahahahahahahahaha.

/ The results are summarized in
a March 2008 report entitled "Preliminary Geostatistical Analysis for Fruta
del Norte Property". The report is not a Technical Report as that term is
defined in National Instrument 43-101 but is available at www.aurelian.ca.
The key conclusion from the AMEC report was that "the drill spacing
required to declare Indicated Mineral Resources and to support Probable
Mineral Reserves is on the order of 25m for a production rate of 5,000 tpd/

If the report is not a Technical Report as defined by 43-101, then who really cares.

/While much of the initial phase of 50m spaced drilling was finished very
little of the ultimately planned 25m spaced holes were started. As a
consequence it is anticipated that very little of the existing Inferred
Mineral Resource will be upgraded to the Indicated category by using the
currently completed drilling in an updated mineral resource estimate./

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

/ Most of the drilling completed at FDN in 2008 was the infill program to
raise the confidence level of the mineral resources. A review and comparison
of the final QA/QC-approved intersections from the new 50m spaced drilling
against the previous mineralized domain model has shown few surprises. It is
anticipated that the new data will result in only modest changes to the
mineralized envelope used to control the grade interpolation. It is not
anticipated that the currently completed drilling will result in a significant
material change in the tonnage or grade of the mineral resources at the
deposit."/

Let me see now, Aru has drilled almost twice the number of holes since the last 43-101 estimate was released. It is stated that no material change in grade or tonnage is anticipated. That must mean that even at a 100m spacing the accuracy of the initial estimate was good. One would think with confirmation of this on a 50m spacing the 43-101 estimate of ARU's ore body could be upgraded at least from the least probable resource catagory. In my opinion, it certainly should have been.

This in fact fits very well from my experience, taking into account the 5:1 ratio of distance between D.D. holes and width of gold vein which in my experience is an optimistic ratio mine planers have to deal with.

Now take into consideration that ARu's deposit is determined to be up to 100m wide and even at a 100m D.D. hole spacing this gives you a length to width ratio of 1:1. At 50m it is 1:2 and at 25m it is 1:4.

In my opinion there is no need to drill any more holes in order to give a much higher 43-101 catagory rating. For some reason, ARU management seems to want to build conservativeness on top of concervativeness. This is also reflected in there high bottom cut and low top cut for estimation purposes as well. I wonder why ARU management is choosing to be so concervative.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahaha, excuse me I had one of my laughing fits again.

/ The first of several deep drill holes, (CP-08-219), has been completed on
section 9583500N, designed to test for the offset part of the FDN deposit at
depth on the west side of the west fault. The hole was stopped at 1,343m and
failed to intersect any epithermal mineralization of significance./

Now since they have stated that the first of several deep deep drill holes have been completed ( implying more than one or two ) then how about we get results from the rest also.

/ As previously reported in Aurelian's Q1 2008 MD&A, an airborne
geophysical survey of the entire Condor Project was begun in that quarter but
was cancelled in light of the suspension of activities under the April 18,
2008 Mining Mandate./

I still have a hard time coming to terms with this supposed mining mandate suspension of activities.

From my sources, the subsistance and artisinal miners continue to work, the 4 small gold mines in operation continue to work, DMM continues to work on there civil construction projects ( the building of crushers, milling facilities, tailings damns etc. is a civil construction project by the way ), Corriente brings investors for site visits to there properties. Yet for some reason ARU cancells an airborne geophysical survey hmmmmmmm.

Regards,

F.F.

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