Mesa1 has returned and, over the weekend, posted this info taken from Richard Reinhard's Growth Stock Weekly newsletter. I assume he had Richard's blessing, but as it's now in a public forum, I'm reposting it below.
BCU rose some 53% on Friday, after a gain of more than 30% on Thursday.
Some folks are obviously excited about the prelim K-6 results. Or is it just the GSW write-up?
I'd also like to ask Mesa1 that, should we have a discovery at Kabba, and given the relatively shallowness of any such deposit, might the "typical 5 cents in situ pound" be on the low side?
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... catching up to what has to be the lowest risk, highest reward opportunity to come along that I can remember over my 25 years in these markets. Richard Reinhard put it rather eloquently to his newsletter subscribers back on July 6th ...
Doing an in-situ calculation is a good ballpark way of understanding what a project like this could be worth. Yes it's premature, but allow me to show what the stakes are here.
If we take a typical 5c per in situ pound as a takeout target figure for Kabba (and assume a spin-off of Sombrero Butte and the Granduc, and a sale of La Balsa) and assume only an average Arizona porphyry of 1.327 billion tonnes with average grades (0.736% Cu,0.007% Mo, 0.08g/t Au, 2.78g/t Ag), and a fully diluted 200 million shares outstanding (less than 1/2 of that right now), it works out to C$5.38 per Bell share.
Now, this is where it gets really interesting. If this ends up being the 4 billion tonne monster that the 15 square kilometre footprint suggests, all things equal we calculate C$25.03 per share. Something the size of a Chuquicamata (a 15 billion tonne behemoth)...and we're talking C$81.21 per share.
Anyway, you get the idea. I suspect we could see a fairly quick recovery for Bell shares, initially back to levels last seen one year ago, once the right funds get a sniff of what us long-suffering and amazingly patient shareholders have been holding on for.
What would be sad, but typical, is current shareholders selling out as doubles become triples and quadruples - replaced by geologically and technically-savvy money that rushes in when discoveries first come to light - and taking the lion's share of the upside. Bell's share price is at 12.5 cents today, and rising.
Stay tuned - it's early days but looking very good.
Kinda puts things in perspective!
