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Small Cap coverage

posted on Mar 17, 09 12:48PM

For those of you who've been reading the Small Cap Network newsletter for a while, you'll easily remember BioCurex Inc. (OTCBB: BOCX). For those of you who are newer, BioCurex is a company worth getting to know. For both of those groups, today's your chance to acquaint yourself with the company's recent progress - BioCurex has continued to take steps towards the monetization of its RECAF cancer detection test.

Overview and Background

Sometimes describing a company requires a little bit of a build up, like examining the need they meet, and then explaining how much work it took to get said company from point A to point B. BioCurex doesn't need that build up though - what they do speaks for itself.

In a nutshell, far too many cancer detection tests are surprisingly inaccurate, slow, expensive, or a combination of all three of those less-than-desirable qualities. BioCurex, on the other hand, has developed a cancer detection test that is accurate, quick, and inexpensive. As such, the company has positioned itself to be the leader in an underserved and highly lucrative market.

Looking at BioCurex in those three lights will best explain what the company is, and why investors would be interested.

Accuracy

At the heart of everything BioCurex is, you'll find RECAF (tm). All cancerous cells cause the creation of a common molecule, while normal, healthy cells don't cause the creation of this same molecule. RECAF, discovered by the company's President Ricardo Moro, is a marker of that particular cancer molecule. Therefore, a positive RECAF test means cancer has been detected.

Simple so far? We'd agree, but there's something else that distinguishes the RECAF test from other cancer tests ...accuracy.

Stunningly, many other cancer tests may as well be coin tosses. Take prostate cancer for instance. Of all the 'positive' results yielded for a common PSA test, only 1/3 of them are actually accurate. The other 2/3 are false 'positives'. It gets worse though, because some of the 'negatives' for this test should actually be 'positive', meaning the patient has prostate cancer and may not even know it. All told, that PSA test is only about 40% accurate, which leads one to wonder if it's doing more harm than good.

When using the RECAF test to detect prostate cancer, the overall accuracy is cranked up to close to 90%.

And just to clarify, RECAF can detect all cancers, as it's searching for that one certain molecule that only exists if cancer is present. Other tests in current use aim to indicate only one particular form of cancer.

Speed

When we first begin our coverage of BioCurex back in 2003, their RECAF test required lab work - an assay - to properly diagnose whether or not cancer was present. Of course, as with any lab work, sending blood/serum samples from a doctor's office to a lab took time, and it took manpower (more time) to generate the test's results. At that point we didn't think much of it, as the accuracy of the test was impressive enough.

In 2007, however, BioCurex began to develop a rapid RECAF test... something that could be performed during an office visit, with results being returned in a matter of minutes.

Since then the device has been fully developed - and it works. The nearby image is a picture of a utilized test. Even to the naked, amateur eye it's clear the rapid RECAF test can be highly accurate. Though the lab version of the test is still utilized where a confirmation is preferred, the rapid test is a functional and fast screening test... something oncologists really don't have access to as of right now.

Cost

The cost to process most current cancer screening tests (materials, lab work, shipping, and the doctor's time) can vary widely, but the majority of them cost anywhere from $75 to $800 complete, depending on the test. If the expense isn't paid by the insurance company, it's out of the patient's pocket.

Having constructed a few versions of the rapid RECAF test already, BioCurex estimates their cancer diagnostic device will cost somewhere between $10 and $20.

While the price difference clearly favors use of the rapid test, there may be an even bigger, unrealized and unintended benefit to the RECAF test - it may actually be performed in those cases where the more expensive tests may not beapproved by insurance companies, or declined by patients who would otherwise pay for such a test out of pocket.

Business Model

And how exactly does BioCurex intend to turn a RECAF test into revenue? There are a couple of options the diagnostic equipment maker has to drive sales; the company has been cultivating both opportunities.

Smartly, BioCurex's offer to potential licensee is semi-exclusive for automated instruments, yet there is no restriction on BioCurex that prevents them from manufacturing and selling manual test kits themselves.

Why would any company bother to design both revenue paths into the business model? Options.

Bringing licensees on board may not yield margins that are as high as you might be able to create selling your own product, but if that licensee already owns a huge amount of market share, bringing them on as a partner may actually generate bigger top and bottom lines than BioCurex could create on its own.

On the other hand, if there's no significant barrier (like manufacturing costs) to selling the test kits directly, and if a potential customer is interested in such a direct purchase, why not? These direct-sale margins would be enormous for BioCurex.

What's Next?

Our only goal today was to put BioCurex back on the radar, for a couple of reasons.

First, have you seen a chart of BOCX lately? The stock was sliding lower until a little over a week ago, when it suddenly made a complete reversal and rebounded from 6 cents to 14 cents - more than a 100% gain made on a huge increase in volume. There was no news, no SEC filing, and not even a rumor associated with the move... at least not yet. We've found, however, that such moves are often omens of compelling news that's yet to actually come out.

The stock retreated a little after that, but on low volume. Then we saw another big buy-in late in the day today. It's just an awful lot of interest for nothing to be going on.

Second, it may be time to renew your interest in the entire biotech industry.

Look at how many acquisitions and mergers we saw in the pharmaceutical and biotech sector in just the last few days. Beckman-Coulter (BEC) acquired the diagnostic division of Olympus, Roche Holding AG finally bought the rest of Genentech (DNA), Pfizer (PFE) is merging with Wyeth (WYE), Merck (MRK) is buying Schering-Plough (SGP), and Gilead (GILD) is set to acquire CV Therapeutics (CVTX)... and these are just the major names we heard about - there may be many more minor ones in the works as well.

We have to wonder if all these mergers are just the beginning of a trend. If it is, is such a union in the cards for BioCurex?

That's not to say BioCurex expects or even necessarily wants to be acquired, nor have we heard anything on the matter. That doesn't mean it can't happen though. And of it did happen, it doesn't mean it would be a bad thing. In fact, it would likely be highly rewarding to investors if it did.

We're going to monitor the stock as well as any company news over the next few days, as there's a good chance far more is going on here than meets the eye. If merited, we'll issue a BOCX trade alert. In the meantime it may be a good idea to put BioCurex back on your watch-lists. Stay tuned.

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