Compton Petroleum Corporation
CMT : TSX : C$8.64
BUY Target: C$15.00
Energy -- Oil and Gas, Exploration and Production
PUTTING A BOW ON IT
Event
Compton released an updated mid-year reserve report and operational update. Reserves
have been internally evaluated as of August 1, 2008. The change in reserve volumes and
values reflect pending asset sales and an update to the price forecast. While 2P reserve
volumes declined 1.2%, the 10% pre-tax value of 2P reserves increased by $508 million
(+17%) or $3.81 per share compared to year-end December 31, 2007. In addition, the proforma
change in net debt is a reduction of $147 million, bringing the total pro-forma
change in 10% pre-tax reserve value and net debt to $655 million or $4.91 per share since
year-end.
Compton also confirmed that its data room will be open on September 8 and a conclusion
to its proposed sale process is expected sometime this fall.
Impact
Positive. We have previously noted that Compton’s year-end reserve value was
conservatively stated given the low price deck assumptions. The indicated change,
combined with the fact that the reduction in debt has added value, we believe, is not
reflected in Compton’s current share price. Only partially offsetting the positive reserve
news was that Compton announced pro-forma production rates for August of 27,000
boe/d. While less than we expected, Compton indicated it expects to see an appreciable
increase over the next few months. In any event, we would note the sale process may be
near complete prior to Compton releasing its next quarterly results. The following tables
summarize the valuation and reserve changes following the mid-year update.
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