Yes, a changed supply situation -- particulary from large, low cost deposits -- changes the fundamentals.

Hykawy is only looking at the 'historical' picture and noting that prices have ranged from a low of around $25 to as high $85 per kilogram.

He's right in noting that successful commercializaton can't happen when the price key raw materials vary by such a large amount. More so in the case of vanadium where some of its key future applications, i.e. batteries, use a fairly significant amount of the metal.

But history also shows how sudden access to 'supply' can change 'demand' as well.

Some 35 years back, there was a global shortage of cobalt. Then, starting from around the late 1970s, some large new mines started to come on production in Africa that essentially guaranteed cobalt supplies.

Almost overnight, a number of new applications that required cobalt hit the market -- applications that could have been brought out years earlier.

That led to successful commercialization of these new products, which in turn, raised the bar for cobalt demand, futher increasing its importance.

Products that need a crucial component aren't brought to market unless companies have a reliable and economic access to that element.

What we don't know with vanadium (rare earths which would be another salient example) is to what degree various stages of "lab ready" new applications have been developed and/or conceptualized, but not brought to market due to current questions of guaranteed access to these critical elements.

Answer the 'guaranteed access' question, and you may indeed have a game changer.

Or at least the McGuffin to the most successful "at the box office" movie ever made.