By Nicholas Larkin
(Adds analyst comment in fourth paragraph, zinc forecast in sixth.)
Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Copper will trade at $11,000 a metric ton in a year, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said as it raised price estimates because of swelling demand.
The forecast implies a 35 percent gain from the metal’s current price. The bank had predicted on Sept. 17 that copper would trade at $8,050 a ton in 12 months. Goldman today advised investors to buy the December 2011 contract as increasing demand leads to shortages of the metal.
Copper for three-month delivery traded on the London Metal Exchange jumped 23 percent in the third quarter, the most in a year, helped by falling stockpiles and a weaker dollar. LME inventories shrank by 17 percent in the period, and the U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s strength, slid 8.5 percent, the most since 2002.
“Supply-demand deficits look set to grow on emerging- market strength and improving demand from developed economies, which we expect to significantly outpace supply growth, drawing down inventories and creating market shortages,” analysts including London-based Jeffrey Currie said in the report. “We don’t believe that the market is fully pricing these shortages and the potential for demand rationing that lies ahead in 2011.”
Zinc Prices
Three-month copper traded at $8,156 a ton at 1:38 p.m. on the LME. The December 2011 contract was at $8,025. Goldman Sachs raised its three-month forecast for the metal to $8,500 and increased its six-month estimate to $8,800.
Copper will average $9,300 a ton next year, the bank said, compared with about $7,215 so far in 2010. Electrical equipment and construction are the main sources of demand.
Goldman Sachs also raised its 12-month forecast for zinc to $3,000 a ton. The metal, used to rust-proof steel, will likely stay in surplus for now because of supply growth, though the market will be more balanced in the year ahead and “possibly swinging to times of deficit” next year, the bank said.
Zinc for three-month delivery was last at $2,288 a ton on the LME, reducing this year’s decline to 11 percent. The metal will average $2,575 in 2011, said Goldman Sachs, which on Sept. 17 predicted a 12-month price of $2,225.
--With assistance from Stuart Wallace and Anna Stablum in London. Editors: Dan Weeks, John Deane.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Carpenter at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net.
Source: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10-05/copper-will-trade-at-11-000-in-a-year-goldman-says.html
