It's interesting to me that the
ONLY new thing that came out of Friday's
news release was the huge increase in the anticipated volume of shale that most people here expected to see.
If you'd had posted on here Thursday that we would see
2,000,000,000 barrels on one third of the
property you would have attracted the ire of every nay-sayer for miles.
So tell me mle1 and others, what has fundamentally changed for you about the outlook for this company, what didn't you know on Thursday that you know now? Why do you think a 30% drop in share price, which brings us down to where we were about 5 weeks ago, will scare everybody off?
A close friend of mine had sold and was hoping to get back in at .41 before the release of the Resource Estimate, he was literally laughing with glee when we discussed what happened on Friday. He realizes the current risks but, on balance, can't believe his good fortune. He wasn't near a
computer all day Friday so he couldn't get in at .41, gee for some reason he likes the look of .315 a whole lot better anyway. Go figure.
How many people bought this stock strictly as a momo play? The ability to process oil/shale didn't suddenly take a massive hit on Friday which would explain the dive in price and not only has voluminous amounts of information on the current processability of oil shale been posted on this site (thanks Rich et al.) if you've got Stockhouse you've got google, so if the definition of contingent resources threw you for a loop hold your right hand about 2 feet away from your face, now very quickly move it towards the right side of your face . . . did that hurt Formosa (aka monkeyhump) funny, that's the second time you fell for that one. I guess you'd also be surprised by how many small, medium, and jumbo companies hold significant "contingent resources."
Again, most here were expecting less than 1 billion barrels but hoping for more, we got 2 billion and the stock tanks and here we have people claiming you will see support at .10-.15 cents (probably hoping to buy more or get back in cheap). So why were you still here on Friday if that's what you think this is really worth? Actually, if a person held stock here on Friday, but claims the true value is now .10-15 cents, what does that tell you about the persons credibility or knowledge, huh?
--Oil/shale is currently being commercially processed in other parts of the world and has been for some time, which would clearly indicate, since oil is priced globally, if it was economic then it sure as he11 is now! And at current
oil prices, the technology is moving forward in leaps in bounds.
--Shell is trying to figure out how to process shale that is several 100s of feet deep and have spent 100s of millions of dollars in their efforts. I wonder how much they would like to get their hands on Goldnev's shale that is open-pittable.
--Eric Sprott, Doug Casey, and many others believe we have already passed the peak oil stage, but if we haven't we are very close and describe it as when, not if. (See Sprotts latest newsletter on the Sprott site). Therefore, they believe, until we can find a replacement for oil, it's going no where but up.
About the only thing I can say with confidence about Goldnev's current share price is the manipulators took serious advantage of the people that don't do their homework (and puddle themselves easily) and have made a quick buck, out early in the day on the surge and back in again on the drop, probably ending up with the same number of shares, and pocketing the difference. There was a .245 cent difference from the peak to the close, some of these manipulators raked in a ton.
If you were in on Thursday and disappointed by what Goldnev published on Friday, you were in for the wrong reasons.
Actually, here's a good challenge. For anyone that was in on Thursday and disappointed with the news release on Friday please explain your disappointment. I know, that's a lot tougher than slagging and coming up with 10 word sound bites like many here, but come on, take up the challenge. See if you can rationalize an intelligent critique
AND put it into words. (
Note: Formosa (aka MH), I said intelligent, sorry pal, don't torture yourself).
I got in just before the Pasquia Hills property was announced, I've sold some to lock in some profit along the way, but this is still by far my largest holding and I expect it to stay that way for a long time. If I can't
invest and make money long-term based on logic as opposed to "sheering the sheep" then I'm out. I didn't buy or sell any on Friday.
For those that actually do a bit of digging, as opposed to "gee this has a pretty chart" or "DOH! I thought they were a gold company!" (so I'm probably speaking to about 15-20% of the Stockhouse public), Google "oil contingent resources," you'll find some very interesting stuff, if you find something particularly interesting post it here with a link.
HH
