Iberian Minerals Corp. | Orest Wowkodaw, CA, CFA, 1.416.869.3092
IZN : TSX-V : C$0.63 | C$213.0M | Buy , Target C$1.20
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Updating estimates for new debt facilities and restructured hedge book;
reiterating BUY rating and C$1.20 target
Event
We are updating our estimates to reflect the company’s two recent debt financings (US$50
million and US$55 million) and restructured hedge book. The revised hedge book pushed
some very low priced 2010 copper hedges into 2011 and added new hedges (at market) in
2012. We estimate that hedges now represent 65%, 77%, and 38% of our forecast payable
copper production in the 2010-2012 periods.
Impact
Positive. The company’s balance sheet stress has been alleviated.
Action
We are reiterating our BUY rating and our 12-month target price of C$1.20. Our C$1.20
target is based on a slightly more conservative average 2010/2011 EV/EBITDA multiple of
4.0x (from 4.5x). Our BUY rating is supported by the company’s very attractive relative
valuation and low risk/cost asset base. We note that a successful ramp up at Aguas Tenidas
and the roll off of low-priced copper hedges are critical milestones required to achieve a rerating
in the shares.
Valuation
Iberian is currently trading at very attractive 2010E and 2011E EV/EBITDA multiples of
2.4x and 2.4x and at a massive 65.7% discount to our revised 10% NPV valuation of $1.84
per share, which compares to our mid-tier base metal producer coverage universe average
of 5.5x, 4.1x and a 3.6% discount to NPV
