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Message: 2008 Commodity Performance

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2008 Commodity Performance

posted on Dec 29, 08 07:00AM

As noted in the charts below, gold has shown extreme resilience to central bank suppression in 2008 and has stood up much better than every other commodity.

In the last 6 months, gold has even broken away from close relationship with crude oil. This was not apparent last year or even the first half of 2008 when gold followed crude quite closely. This confirms that the ultimate currency gold is now the clear leader amongst commodities and this will have a snowball effect as funds join the party.

As Bill Cara aptly stated ..."Gold spurted 20 dollars higher in late morning trade and looks to be coiling prior to a large directional trend move lasting several months."



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2008 Commodity Performance

No asset class has experienced a roller-coaster ride like commodities have in 2008. Below is a table with the performance of ten major commodities over the last year. For each commodity, we highlight its current year-to-date change, its drop from its 52-week high, and its performance from the start of the year to its 52-week high.

As shown, oil has fallen the most from its highs at -75%. Oil is trailed by copper (-70%), platinum (-61%), and natural gas (-57%). Oil is also the commodity that is down the most year to date at -62%. Of the ten commodities highlighted, gold is the only one that remains up on the year with a gain of 3.87%.

The crazy thing is that these commodities looked to be headed towards record positive years just a few months ago. At its peak, natural gas was up 83% on the year, but it is now down 22% in 2008. Oil was up 53% for the year before falling more than $100 from its highs.

As hectic as the stock market has been this year, commodities have been even more volatile.

chart1

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