Gold price to rally regardless of who is elected President

By Emma Wall

Gold is likely to go much higher in the course of the 45th President's four year term – whether there is a President Obama or a President Romney, according to analytics firm GoldCore.

In its latest newsletter, GoldCore said that the US fiscal cliff, involving steep government spending cuts and tax hikes due in January, is likely to "support gold at these levels and lead to higher gold prices in the coming weeks".

Depending on which of the candidates is elected as US President, the gold price is predicted to experience short-term weakness, but over the long term, GoldCore expected that monetary challenges facing the Fed and the White House would lead to the gold price increasing.

The external macro environment also supports an increase in the gold price, said GoldCore, which is currently valued at $1,724/ounce.

"Gold will not suffer when there is a change and a move away from ultra, ultra loose monetary policies. As was seen in 1980, gold’s secular bull market is likely to end if the Federal Reserve again achieves positive real interest rates," said an analyst.

James Steel, analyst at HSBC Securities said that gold prices tend to appreciate more rapidly under Democratic presidents.

In a report entitled US Elections and Gold he said: "The more satisfied the public appears to be with the direction of the nation, the less likely gold is to rally. High Presidential disapproval ratings have been likely to support gold prices, and improvements in presidential approval ratings have weighed on gold prices."

The HSBC report also found that gold tends to rally during periods of foreign entanglement and conflict, regardless of which party is in power.