Peter Koven Jan 19, 2012 – 9:30 AM ET | Last Updated: Jan 19, 2012 12:15 PM ET
It has been a very rough week for Kinross Gold Corp. After the Toronto-based miner revealed likely delays and serious cost pressures at its three key growth projects on Tuesday, the stock plunged 21%.
Since then, a number of analysts have slashed their targets on the stock and taken a more cautious outlook on the company’s growth plans. The latest to do so is Stephen Walker of RBC Capital Markets, who warned that there is more risk than reward in Kinross shares in the short term.
The three development projects facing likely delays are Tasiast, Fruta del Norte and Lobo-Marte. Mr. Walker increased his construction cost estimates for each project by 25%, and also assumed that they will each be delayed by a year.
After making those changes in his model, his net asset value value [NAV] calculation for Kinross plunged 24.5% to $9.92 a share. Mr. Walker also lowered his target multiple on Kinross shares to 1.0 times NAV (from 1.2 times) to reflect the increased uncertainty around the growth projects.
The end result of all those changes is pretty ugly: Mr. Walker’s price target plunged to $14 a share, way down from the prior level of $20. However, it is still a 33% premium to the current Kinross stock price.
“Longer term, we believe Kinross has the opportunity to deliver strong production growth which could warrant a higher multiple; however, we expect the valuation discount to persist until investors have greater certainty around the scope of its key development projects,” Mr. Walker wrote in a note.
