LARGO RESOURCES LTD ("LGO-V;LGONF-L") - Short Positions on 2008/09/15 736,500 -12,500 0.30
Net Total Last Total Price
Date Change Shorted Price Volume Range
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2008/09/15 -12,500 736,500 0.30 15,678,348 0.30 - 0.42
2008/08/31 -788,500 749,000 0.44* 10,876,301 0.43 - 0.55
2008/08/15 206,300 1,537,500 0.52 18,286,692 0.52 - 0.84
2008/07/31 -860,400 1,331,200 0.85 19,079,658 0.68 - 0.93
2008/07/15 -2,765,100 2,191,600 - 19,457,637 0.87 - 1.23
2008/06/30 1,004,400 4,956,700 1.15 45,053,312 1.09 - 1.49
2008/06/15 3,495,300 3,952,300 1.14* 76,437,232 0.81 - 1.18
2008/05/31 457,000 457,000 0.77* 9,044,450 0.54 - 0.77
Very interesting. My short data doesnt come with volume and price ranges. They certainly paint a more complete picture.
For instance, note that the bulk of the shorts were put on from 6/01-15 between .81 and 1.18.
3.5 million shorts in two weeks seems like an awful lot but we did an astonishing 76M shares so per centage wise it isnt actually that much.
During the following two week period volume was still incredibly high with 45M more shares. Even though the price went considerably higher, 1M more shorts were added(vs the 3.5 previous). Considering the 3.5 was done somewhere around an average $1.00 price, they must have been pretty nervous with the price continuing to go against them as far as 1.60 on such large volume.
I maintain they caught quite a break - not only did vanadium back off some in price, but July saw the simultaneous collapse of every commodity there is. It was the worst month for commodities ever. Fortuitous timing on their part. We did go almost vertical and that kind of price action is a legetimate short target I admit. I think though if cirucmstances didnt play out in macro markerts the way they did, those shorts could have had a very different outcome.
Half of them covered as quick as they could(probably very happy to get out alive -and with a profit). By the time we fell back to .87 half had covered, then another large chunk by the time we hit .68.
By then we had another phenomenon- the disentegrating hedge fund. If not for this other market anomoly all those shorts would've been long gone. ie the second half would have quickly followed on the heels of the first half who were gone by .87. This other phenom is described here:
Take the case of Ospraie Management, LLC, which, according to Bloomberg, was once the largest commodity hedge fund. Controlling $9 billion in March 2008, they now have $4 billion under management, having unwound several billion dollars of losing positions. And they probably used leverage. If we assume leverage of 10:1, a modest figure for the industry, against a $5 billion loss, $50 billion of de-leveraging is not an unreasonable estimate
Knowing that some funds were being forced to liquidate and delever, other funds smelled the blood in the water and shorted all the way down while the forced sales were going on thereby driving prices to outrageous levels. Institutions also capitulated on the way down and the shorts were unstoppable. This was still occouring when we broke .30 two weeks ago.
Thats all changed now. While we have now have the mother of all crises, the selling has dried up. We were at about 80K shares today by 1pm or so. Unheard of for Largo volume. Those 700K that are still hanging on are not getting anyone else dumping into them. In fact, while they keep hitting the bids hoping to scare someone out of their position, it doesnt happen and they end up with more shorts that they are going to have to cover.
Ask yourself: why the enormous basher campaign here? They're trying to scare up some retail but that isnt going to work either. There isnt that much of a retail holding in this stock and those of us that are here, know the value of what we hold so all the seeds of doubt and fear arent going to get any shares covered. Sorry bozzos.
I've said before that Sept month end is significant for Hedge and mutual fund redemptions. That leaves only 3 trading days and if I'm right about having to have the trades settle before then, then basicly, times up...better start coverin'.
All the kings men are busy scrambling to put this package together in Washington. It'll be done by Monday in all likelihood...just in time for the scoping study.
One last thought - if those hedge funds who were forced to liquidate by month end loved the story to the degree that they bought 110M shares > $1 what do you think they think about Largo at .30 with Northern Dancer proving up assays like the one we got tonight?
