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Message: Re: Financials

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Re: Financials

in response to Re: Financials by AGORACOM
posted on Jan 14, 08 07:50AM

"We have never estimated EPS in the past but have given a target for cash flow from operations based on $15 US/lb Ni, an 87 cent dollar exchange, 69M shares outstanding and full production at 1500 tonnes per day including the rich lower zone at McWatters and Redstone combined"


Doing some quick math here, correct me if I'm wrong:


Original estimate: $15 US/lb / 0.87 = $17.24 CDN / lb

Current price: $13 US/lb / 0.98 = $13.26 CDN / lb

2008 Production: 50% (perhaps a bit more?  being cautious here for 2008) of 1500 t/day capacity


Revenue received on sale of nickel down 23% from original estimate.
Production at 50% of capacity for 2008.

Tallying this up, this gives us 38.5% of original revenue estimates for 2008.

Of course, with the lower production comes a lower cost of processing, but reducing revenues by over half of what was originally forecast has a massive impact on the bottom line.  We'll have a better feel for how this plays out in the Q1 and Q2 financial statements, but the share price has certainly factored this in.

As production nears capacity in the coming year or so and if the nickel price increases as many analysts are predicting, the share price will grow accordingly.  On the flip side, if further delays drag out the full production date, if nickel prices deteriorate and the Canadian dollar goes on another run (some analysts are seeing a $1.20 dollars, others are seeing a $0.90 dollar--take your pick), we could see a profitable mine become an unprofitable (or barely profitable) one.

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