Occasionally I have a hard time sleeping when the stock price has a negative response to killer awesome news. So I created this little summary to keep my nerves strong while holding my NOT shares long.
First there is the issue of known ore body size – thankfully at the last Richmond Club meeting we were given some insight into what would be some reasonable numbers (it would be great to get Rockaurs input this):
Ore body dimensions – oval with major and minor axis of 120m and 45m respectively.
This coupled with the statement (forgive me if this is not the exact wording) “if this were to extend for 300m we would have 7Mt of ore”, and in this same context stating that value of this ore would be $800/ton. By doing some simple math you can determine that the ore body density that they are using is 5500 kg/cu.m.
I really like to look at companies with respect to their insitu value of the ore in the ground. Using the metric of buying the stock at less than 10% insitu value and selling above 40% insitu value (some ubber experienced investor person came up with this and I happened to apply it to my investments).
OK now that you see where my baseline numbers came from lets put this into play.
First the baseline:
| | | Insitu Value | Company Value | Share Price |
| Ore Body (Tons) | 6,997,898 | | | | |
| $ in ore Body | $5,598,318,109 | | 0.10 | $559,831,811 | $4.74 |
| Shares | 118,000,000 | | 0.15 | $839,747,716 | $7.12 |
| Rock per Tonne | $800 | | 0.20 | $1,119,663,622 | $9.49 |
| | | | 0.25 | $1,399,579,527 | $11.86 |
| E1 Oval | | | 0.30 | $1,679,495,433 | $14.23 |
| length (m) | 120 | | 0.35 | $1,959,411,338 | $16.61 |
| width (m) | 45 | | 0.40 | $2,239,327,243 | $18.98 |
| Distance (m) | 300 | | | | |
| Density (kg/cu.m) | 5,500.0 | | | | |
| Volume (cu.m) | 1,272,345 | | | | |
| Mass (Tonne) | 6,997,898 | | | | |
Not to unreasonable given our current trading range.
Now the fun part – lets add in a conservative $100/ton for the Rhodium AND ore body length that “is measured in kilometers”. I have heard/read the 2 km length being tossed about so lets use that.
| | | Insitu Value | Company Value | Share Price |
| Ore Body(Tons) | 46,652,651 | | | | |
| $ in ore Body | $41,987,385,815 | | 0.10 | $4,198,738,582 | $35.58 |
| Shares | 118,000,000 | | 0.15 | $6,298,107,872 | $53.37 |
| Rock per Tonne | $900 | | 0.20 | $8,397,477,163 | $71.17 |
| | | | 0.25 | $10,496,846,454 | $88.96 |
| E1 Oval | | | 0.30 | $12,596,215,745 | $106.75 |
| length (m) | 120 | | 0.35 | $14,695,585,035 | $124.54 |
| width (m) | 45 | | 0.40 | $16,794,954,326 | $142.33 |
| Distance (m) | 2000 | | | | |
| Density (kg/cu.m) | 5,500.0 | | | | |
| Volume (cu.m) | 8,482,300 | | | | |
| Mass (Tonne) | 46,652,651 | | | | |
WOW!!!
Now “IF” these type of numbers (2 km ish) are to be achieved it will certainly take time, and require lots of sleep (on my part).
So now you all know that when Crazydik’s snoring gets to loud and wakes me up, I plug in the latest numbers that I can find support for – breath a big sigh and drift back into a deep slumber while watching a full Rhodium moon set behind the silhouette of our master Geo Richard Nemis.
Hope this helps some of you sleep a little better over the Christmas season – Long (yawn) and strong on NOT – can hear those Platinum bells jinglen’?
SD
