Once the commodities turn up, equity markets should follow. Today's thirst for liquidity will become a thirst for tangibles; the bid on mortgage-based securities will rise to meet the ask; and those neighbors down the street will finally sell their home, and at a reasonable, which is to say, market, price.

Watch the statements by policy-makers at the forthcoming monetary conference, and, more important, actions. The Fed is reportedly hesitant to go much further because, at the current Fed funds rate, "we're running out of bullets."

Which is why, when the Fed does cut again, it will signal the long-awaited capitulation, putting U.S. monetary policy in line with its real-world status as the world's greatest deadbeat. Paradoxically, that will be the time to cover your U.S. shorts, and buy.

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