Two global gold-price forecasters sense a $2 300/oz long-term gold price.
Seasoned forecaster Dundee Wealth Inc chief economist Martin Murenbeeld and US Global Investors precious-metal-fund comanager Ralph Aldis both cite the exact same long-term $2 300/oz figure, Murenbeeld explaining that the $850/oz gold-price peak of January 2008 translates into a $2 300/oz peak in today's money.
"My feeling is that, over the long cycle that we're in, gold will take out that $2 300/oz, but that's not tomorrow, I am speaking down the road," says Murenbeeld.
Aldis says: "We'll see, but I think, in the longer term, you're talking gold as a fairly safe investment, and it wouldn't surprise me to see gold go back, on a inflation-adjusted basis, to $2 300/oz."
For 2009, Murenbeeld's majority scenario is that the gold price will be at a level above $1 100/oz by year-end.
"We're in a gold uptrend, I am absolutely convinced of that, but the price rise does not necessarily happen as quickly as investors might hope or want," he cautions.
Murenbeeld reminds investors that it took 16 months for gold to take out the uptrend to $725/oz and he believes that it may take a while again before gold goes beyond $1 000/oz.
Like most commodities, gold, he says, goes through long cycles, its shortest upcycle being ten years.
"In the long uptrend that we are projecting for gold, it'll be perfectly normal to experience one or two years of countertrend," says Murenbeeld, who argues in favour of a significant bullish trend in the gold market on the basis of the current monetary and fiscal reflation that is under way.
"It's reflation that's good for gold," he says.
