I am indeed awake and wasting precious time keeping a watchful eye on the nonsense in the markets. Don't expect it to change anytime soon. We are still in the muck globally.
And the fluff surrounding this merger is not helping.
The school yard foolishness which has marred the pending offer from NOT for FWR is at times amusing, yet ultimately pointless.
Here is the deal. Quite simple really.
Everyone who holds FWR shares will have the opportunity to tender those shares for a piece of NOT. Noront has been the only real story in the ROF since the beginning, although there are some interesting side plays, on a much smaller scale.
I happen to hold both companies, and a few others to boot. Thus far in the story, I see nothing of interest in the FWR claims, other than potential. If I did not have faith in NOT's BOD, and the apparent fact that they see something interesting in FWR, I would be yelling from the rooftops that this is a bad deal...bad for NOT.
But who am I to second guess what the NOT board is up to? So far they have not disappointed, and they seem to have, from where I sit, some considerable business savy. I like that in a BOD that exercises control over my sizeable investment.
I read through the FWR stuff and their position seems to boil down to a deeply held belief that more money is better than some money (or more accurately, more shares are better than some shares). And further, that if somebody really wants something, they should be prepared to pay whatever is demanded, even if their expectations have no fundamental basis in reality.
OK. That sounds fine. If you can get the other side to play along, why not?
But...wouldn't it make more sense if you actually had a valuation that you could point to? Or perhaps identify a real (as opposed to imaginary) alternative suitor who was at your door with a bigger box of chocolates? When you posture like the FWR board is doing, do you not run the risk that NOT will simply say, fine, and walk away? Doews that not potentially screw the very people you are entrusted to look after; namely, your shareholders?
I paid about .27 for each of my FWR shares. I had all the time in the world to buy at that level, and often below that level. That is the only valuation that mattered prior to the NOT offer. This is how the market valued FWR. During all that time, I did not see the FWR BOD howling to the moon at how unfair the market was being, or how they should be getting more for the shares. I did not see the BOD trying to buy back their shares at such a foolishly low price. Not hardly.
So what has changed? NOT has shown some interest in consolidating the area presumably with a view to presenting a more attractive takeover target to a major in these crappy times. And they have invited the FWR shareholders to be part of that. And they have offered a nice premium to the market price at the time of the offer. And further, the FWR shareholders get to be NOT shareholders and join in whatever riches await us at the end of this journey.
Well, cry me a river again. I can certainly see why that would not be attractive.
So there it is. Tender or don't. That's the deal. The rest is background noise.
But here's my problem. I think NOT has offered too much. I think the NOT discoverys so outclass anything found by anyone else in the ROF, that FWR should be cut loose to fend for themselves. But that's my problem. I am a greedy son of a gun, and I do not like to share.
But I'm not in charge.
I wish I was. We wouldn't be having these discussions.
And FWR would be trading at .25. Or less.
MY two cents.
crazydik
