It matters not what the current share price of NOT is versus FWR if there are a few institutions behind the offer. What matters is that they are likely trading NOT shares for FWR in order to tender them at the appropriate time. That explains to me the price action of both.
IMO, this is also partly the wind behind NOT's sails.

Additional wind may well be a Rothschild tie in that may be leading to Xstrata. South African
companies are fairly tight with european business and Rothschild being a leader in Europe, I tie that with NOT's management making a visit to S.A. and the biggest chromium producers at that, They having some production problems in SA,
SO I start seeing smoke blowing in the wind.
Xstrata having a foot hold in Sudbury is another tell tale incentive.

Should Cliffs decide to take over FWR, NOT or both, guess what? Take over of Cliffs?
Anyone else sensing some heat coming on?

All in my guesstimated opinion. Ed.