"....history saying an unexpected third party might emerge down the road."

It is obvious to me that a combined NOT/FWR will be a magnet for a takeover by a major and probably at a decent price maybe complete with a bidding war.

But if NOT does not take over FWR then NOT will be so-to-speak hamstrung. Chances are that a major could take over NOT and FWR cheaper as separate entities. I.e. if Xtrata were to take out FWR's chomium on the cheap, then they could probably get NOT's nickel much cheaper.

I'm hoping this doesn't happen since I own both.

IMO.