Your three options give rise to further thoughts on each, Miskealp.
1. If I had a long term contract to supply a product, at a given price, I could care less who I was buying it from, as long as the price ensured a profit for me. This would be a business venture designed to show profit, leaving little room for loyalties or compassion.
2. Cliffs is in the business of processing and supply of long term contracts. With only a couple of exceptions, their preference is to hold a minority interest in the source of their products, and would rather leave control of same to others. With a rail line to the source and a ready buyer (themselves) at the other end, may be all they need to ensure a ready supply of product. Based on this I am of the opinion that Cliffs will not be a factor in this takeover story.
3. Noront has to have some ace in the hole here. It simply does not equate that they would proceed as they have without something very compelling to seal the deal. Nobody to date has presented a reasonable scenario, other than Cliffs as a white knight and that simply does not play in my mind. The most likely though is a major willing to enter the fray but only with consolidation, which would probably have to include FNC.
Think about an offer of $75m @ $3/ share, but only on condition of consolidation.
Best regards
K
