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Odyssey Petroleum Target Price $2.80

posted on May 06, 08 07:01AM

Odyssey Petroleum

Odyssey Petroleum is an emerging oil and gas exploration company focused on developing significant oil and natural gas reserves in the southern United States. When oil and gas prices were low, the company aggressively bought participation in exploration and development fields located primarily in the Mississippi Interior Salt Basin.


Current reserves of 34 million barrels of oil and 97 million MCF of gas
Odyssey is growing its operations to 1,000 plus barrels of oil per day by exploiting the potential of its low risk Puckett, Pelahatchie, Verba and Barber Creek Mississippi oil and gas fields. During 2008 and 2009 the company will be drilling and developing its major Mississippi oil and gas reserves. By applying the latest geophysical and geological technologies when selectively drilling its new wells, the company reduces the risks typically associated with oil and gas exploration.

The growth of Odyssey’s revenue will come from its proven, probable and possible reserves of more than 34.6 million barrels of oil and 97.5 million MCF of gas, which have a potential future revenue of $978 million. This data has been published in Odyssey’s NI 51-101. With the continuing rise of oil prices worldwide, management believes that Odyssey's financial future is very bright.
Odyssey Petroleums short term goal is to produce 1,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. This production goal would position the company at the next recognition level when analysts and fund managers typically start to take serious interest in following a junior oil and gas company. When the 1,000 barrel production is achieved, the revenue to Odyssey would be approximately $16 million.


Investment Highlights
  • Emerging oil and gas company with undervalued share price
  • Experienced management
  • Properties located in the oil and gas-rich Louisiana / Mississippi area
  • Employs latest geophysical and geological technologies
  • Focused on improving production / cash flow from wells
  • Drilling in highly prolific areas will continue to rapidly increase production
  • Increased production in the fourth quarter 06 by 20% to $7.5M annualized revenues
  • $37M spent acquiring / developing properties
  • Owns infastructure valued at $20 million
  • Current production of 400+ barrels of oil equivalents / day
  • Short term goal to produce 1,000 barrels / day generating $16 million per annum
  • Extensive reserve sutdies by Fletcher Lewis of Oklahoma
  • Over 30 years of geological date and historical information



Future Revenue and Current Reserves

  • Potential future revenue is $978.9 million – based on constant prices and expenses, NPV 10*
  • Proven, probable and possible reserves of more than 34.6 million barrels of oil and 97.5 million MCF of gas
  • Thisdata is based on Odyssey Petroleum’s published NI 51-101 produced by Fletcher Lewis Engineering Inc. and dated December 7, 2006
    *Net present value discounted at 10%


Puckett Field, Rankin & Smith Counties, Mississippi

  • Potential future revenue of $200 million
  • 25 well oil and gas field, 14 wells currently producing
  • Estimated future recovery: five million barrels of oil and five million cubic feet of gas, 38 producing zones
  • Blue sky potential – new deeper drilling can add significant additional reserves

Pelahatchie Field, Rankin County, Mississippi

  • Potential future revenue of $2.9 billion
  • Proven and probable reserves – 50,000,000 (BOE)
  • Multiple productive zones 7500 ft to 17,000 ft. subsurface and 4,300 acres
  • Most infastructure in place, eight wells producing
  • Acquisition/development cost under $2 per barrel

The Verba Field, Mississippi

  • 12 wells, including seven which are presently fully-equipped oil wells producing 3600 – 4400 barrels per month, and three orphan wells with added potential
  • Two operational salt water disposal wells and mineral leasehold rights to the majority of the known productive limits extending over approx. 1,500 gross acres
  • Located 50 miles from the Company’s core operations, Verba produced 2M barrels of oil from eight formations

Barber Creek Field, Scott County, Mississippi

  • Smackover Formation includes three productive wells
  • 1.2M barrels of oil have been produced in the past
  • Report estimates 2.6M barrels of recoverable oil
  • Geology indicates a new well can be drilled in a superior position to the three producing wells, and should recover appreciable new oil reserves
  • Comprising approximately 850 acres, Barber Creek Field is located 35 miles east of Jackson, Mississippi, only 12 miles north of the Company’s core operations


Louisiana and North Texas Properties
Odyssey owns various interests in properties in Louisiana and North Texas and is currently evaluating and assessing them to ensure that they are in keeping with the companies core growth objectives. Included with these properties is the Iowa Field in Jefferson David Parish, Louisiana.

Iowa Field, Jefferson David Parish, Louisiana

  • Potential future revenue of $200 million
  • 70% working interest in the Fred Denison #1 & #2
  • Proven and probable reserves – 20 BCF gas 500,000 oil/condensate, 3-D seismic supported
  • Five additional drilling opportunities
  • Currently negotiating an increased working interest

Formations/Development Cost/Estimated Return

PelahatchieDevelopmentCost.jpg picture by stockbaggernegotiating an increased working interest

Formations/Development Cost/Estimated Return

PelahatchieDevelopmentCost.jpg picture by stockbagger

Analyst Report

Here is an analyst report from CanAmInvestor.com. The report is 1 year old. Since that time Oil fields are trading at the $10+ range. Also note they are basing their estimates on ONLY proven reserves. When you include the Probabl & Possible reserves their numbers would double.



April 27, 2007....STILL HIGH RISK ODYSSEY PETROLEUM, symbol ODE...AT UNDER THE .12 CENTS LEVEL, IT MERITS ATTENTION-TO SAY THE LEAST! INSIDERS (THEIR OFFICERS) HAVE BEEN HEAVY BUYERS...The Canaminvestor is focused on stocks that are at or near their multi-year price lows and/or severely undervalued. We do not chase or tout. If a stock is already up, we cannot consider it. Many of the stocks that we find undervalued are seemingly "under siege."

One stock of note, Odyssey Petroleum is for the present, an "asset play," and may take time. Key point:The value of the company's assets to its very low stock price merits attention. We were first shown "Odyssey, symbol ODE, a bit over a year ago while it was trading near the .30 cents level. It was not exceedingly undervalued at that time. Several months later, at near the .17 cents level, it began to enter the sharply undervalued zone and we commenced moderate coverage. But above all else, it is not an investment situation for traders who need a quick turnaround....forget it, it may take some time. But if one is a value investor, one might take note of some noteworthy financial numbers.

Let's start with Odyssey's two year price range. The high price was .45 cents with the low a the .09 cents level where it is now trading in the vicinity of. So we are near the price low. But with that price low comes some very interesting numbers for its assets.
Their oil and gas reserves are large enough to attract investor attention but not large enough to be of interest to the major oil companies-but recognize that very few of any producers are of interest to the majors. As you know, the major oil companies are only interested in enormous production. However, exceptional profits are offered by small and medium sized producers for the patient investor.

SOME COMPELLING NUMBERS
The Fletcher Lewis Engineering Company of Oklahoma City, in their latest valuation done in December of 2006, under NI 51-101 indicate 20,785,761 proven barrels of oil and 42,017,298 net gas (MCF) which in the standard industry conversion would give the gas reserves a figure of 7.002,883 barrels of oil equivalent. The standard is to divide by the gas figure by six so in this case, the 42,017,298 by 6 giving barrel equivalent of 7,002,833. Then, by adding the 20,785,761 to the 7,002,883 BOE, the company has 27,788,644 barrels of oil of proven reserves.

THEN ?
We have to put a dollar value on each barrel of reserves. To be totally unbiased in our valuation methods, we spoke with several analysts that we respect (there are very few) and asked if $10 per barrel in the ground would be conservative enough. They said yes and even suggested that $10 per barrel was to low a price. But, to be even more conservative, we put a value of $5 on each barrel of reserves. WE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OF THE PROBABLE OR POSSIBLE RESERVES IN THAT TOTAL-ONLY PROVEN RESERVES. Finally, if we multiply the 27,788,644 BARRELS of reserves by $5, we have a value of $138,943,221 for those proven reserves.

And then? We divide that total value by Odyssey’s shares outstanding of 147,025,137. That gives us a value of proven reserves of $.94 for each share that is currently selling in the .09 to .10 cents range. Conservatively, we feel that the stock should be minimally at the .30 cents to .50 cents level in view of their present levels of reserves. At this price, attention is merited and accumulation might be considered. But don't ask when its value will be reflected.

OH! AND BY THE WAY!
So far in 2007, just in Mississippi, Odyssey's oil wells produced 10,127 barrels of oils in January, 9,517 barrels of oil in February and 10,909 barrels of oil in March. But again, we are only focusing on assets.


Some history
Odyssey did a placement at the .30 cents level a year and a half ago. In our opinion, too many shares were purchased by traders and not enough by longer term investors.....that was not positive. The vast majority of shares OF ANY COMPANY should be in the hands of long term investors. Much of ODE's stock has been coming to the market for sale when it did not go up in price as too many traders had expected. It may remain under selling pressure for some time; we cannot even venture a guess. But the assets per share indicate sharp undervaluation.......NOTE VERY WELL THAT INVESTORS COULD BE SITTING IN THIS FOR QUITE A WHILE, SO DON'T APPROACH IT WITH TRADING IN MIND!!!

.............................This is a high risk investment, it is not suitable for many investor, only those who can afford a high risk. As always, the Canaminvestor believes that an investor should not put more than equal to one month of his or her income into any stock investment.......We also want to note that the Canaminvestor was not paid for this report; rather we believe that Odyssey merits attention for accumulation.





Competative Analysis Between Odyssey Petroleum and Denbury


Odyssey Petroleum is the #25 ranked oil producer in Mississippi and Denbury Resources Inc. is the #1 ranked oil producer in Mississippi. Denbury Resources Inc. (NYSE: DNR) is a growing independent oil and gas company. The Company is the largest oil and natural gas operator in Mississippi and owns the largest reserves of CO2 used for tertiary oil recovery east of the Mississippi River, and holds significant operating acreage onshore Alabama, in the Barnett Shale play near Fort Worth, Texas, and properties in Southeast Texas. The Company's goal is to increase the value of acquired properties through a combination of exploitation, drilling and proven engineering extraction practices, with its most significant emphasis relating to tertiary recovery operations. They use a tertiary oil recovery system which entails pumping CO2 into their wells to boost production. Using tertiary oil recovery, perhaps 30-60 %, or more, of the reservoir's original oil can be extracted compared with 20-40% using primary and secondary recovery. With oil prices at around 90 US$/barrel, the economic benefit for CO2 is roughly about 70 US$ per tonne CO2. As of 04/24/08 Denbury’s share price was $30.60 U.S. An interesting fact about Denbury is that it replaced 250% of their production in 2007. In the last few years they have spent $300 million dollars on acquiring oil fields in Mississippi and surrounding area. Denbury is a very well managed company and is a very good example of what happens when good management, good technology, and highly prolific oil properties are combined. Odyssey Petroleum also has excellent management but currently lacks working capital and the necessary infastructure. To fully develope Pelahatchie Field would take around $136M with net revenue of $3 billion. Considering Denbury’s strategic objectives and their quest for reserves, it is possible that they may at some point take an interest in Odyssey Petroleum’s Pelahatchie Field. The Pelahatchie Field is located in east-central Rankin County, Mississippi near the geographic center of the state, approximately twenty miles east of Jackson, Mississippi. The field was discovered in 1962 by American PetroFina with production from the Mooringsport sand at 9800 ft. using early gravity and seismic technology.

The following quotation is from Drilling Ahead:The Quest for Oil in the Deep South "Shell Oil-1967 "The highest oil prices in a decade ($2.91) fueled a frenzied exploration business 1967. A year after its great find at Tallahala Creek, Shell logged an important strike in Rankin County, Mississippi, 22 miles east of Jackson. There they drilled a deep test in the old Pelahatchie Field, which had produced small amounts of oil from various lower Cretaceous sands since 1962. Although the Smackover was undoubtly Shell's target, they found oil instead in the deeper Norphlet Formation, the first such find in Mississippi. The Rankin County News printed a gigantic aerial photograph of the well with the caption "She's a Big'Un, Boys." The paper reported that on an initial one-hour test, the well flowed "a barrel a minute." More precise tests later brought the rate down to a more believable 500 BOPD (merely a nice 'un) from perforations below 17,000 feet, the deepest well in the state. Shell Oil Co. established the first Norphlet production in this field in 1967 at a depth of 17,100 feet. Several wells were drilled which appeared to confirm large reservoirs in the Norphlet, Smackover and Haynesville formations. The wells produced 669,000 barrels from two wells during a period of 450 days (average of 1,485 barrels per day). Production stopped from the wells in late 60's due to salt precipitation in the tubing."

Since that time modern technology has found work around solutions for salt precipitation and yes Odyssey Petroleum does have two operational salt water disposal wells. This is something that the property lacked back in 1967.


Another reason Denbury would be interested in acquiring Pelahatchie field are the CO2 reserves deep in the Smackover formation. There is estimated to be 200Billion Cu Ft. of CO2 in there. Pelahatchie field is in Rankin County. There is a huge deep seated anticline, fifty miles long and at least twenty miles wide that was discovered in 1967 and includes parts of Rankin County, Madison, and Scott Counties. Pelahatchie field is highly prolific with oil, natural gas, Co2, and sulpur. I think any intermediate company would be interested in purchasing Odyssey Petroleum.



In comparing the two companies Odyssey Petroleum on the other hand is a very small junior oil company currently trading at 10.5 cents and book value of 22 cents. Well worth noting that Odyssey Petroleum did acquire Pelahatchie field for under $2.00 per barrel so their BV is extremely understated. Most companies are acquiring reserves these days for $10-15 per barrel. Odyssey Petroleum’s strategy to date has been to consolidate Pelahatchie field through mergers, acquisitions, and purchases. Some of their properties did come with wells and they have been reworking them for cash flow. Their other strategy has been to drill close to the surface to improve bottom line through developing low risk oil plays closer to the surface. Odyssey Petroleum has been making real process this year in attaining its goals and has started 4 new wells in 2008.

Denbury Resources

Odyssey Petroleum

#1 producer in Mississippi (#1 out of 181)

#25 producer in Mississippi

2007 Oil (bbls) 10,582,048

2007 Oil (bbls) 112,486

Share price 04/24/08 $30.60 U.S.

Share price 04/24/08 $0.105 Can

$60M cash on hand Dec 2007

$0.2M Cash on hand Sept 2007

$2771 M total assets Dec 2007

$43 M Assets Sept 2007

$1366 M total liabilities Dec 2007

$7 M Liabilities Sept 2007

$1404 M total equity Dec 2007

$42 M Equity

Reserves $200 million BOE

Reserves 50M BOE (NI 51-101 dated 2006)

If Denbury or any other company decided to purchase Odyssey Petroleum what would a fair price be? In 2008 oil reserves are selling at $10-15 plus per Proven, Probable, and Possible.

50M x $14=700M/186M shares=$3.76 per ODE share. (Undervalued you bet!)
or
50M x $14=700M/250M (fully diluted) shares = $2.80 per ODE share

ODE's infastructure alone is worth 11 cents. BV=22 cents based on $2.00/BOE cost.

Odyssey Petroleum has two choices one of which is to slowly develop its resources on a shoe string budget or prime itself for a merger or takeover. 50M reserves are too small for companies like Shell to be interested in but they are large enough for an intermediate company to have interest. Not many companies have $700M cash on hand so perhaps a merger or acquisition for share would be the best idea.




Missippi Oil Production Ranking by Producer 2007

RankOperatorOil (bbls)
1DENBURY ONSHORE, LLC10,582,048
2VENTURE OIL & GAS, INC.1,224,332
3TELLUS OPERATING GROUP, LLC1,175,929
4COMSTOCK OIL AND GAS, LP782,190
5ROUNDTREE & ASSOC INC599,892
6MOSBACHER ENERGY CO537,742
7PETCO PETROLEUM CORP.253,376
8EAGLE OIL AND GAS CO.251,898
9EOG RESOURCES INC211,727
10PHILLIPS, JACK L.184,937
11R. W. TYSON PRODUCING CO INC174,563
12SPOONER PETROLEUM CO161,691
13EDGE PETROLEUM OPERATING CO. INC.145,220
14TWISTER GAS SERVICES, L.L.C.142,868
15SUNDOWN ENERGY LP141,347
16PRUET PRODUCTION CO138,396
17BEAN RESOURCES, INC136,706
18J. R. POUNDS INC134,985
19WHITING OIL AND GAS CORPORATION130,529
20MOON HINES TIGRETT OP CO122,342
21PALMER PETROLEUM INC.121,644
22TEXAS PETROLEUM INVESTMENT CO121,413
23ENSIGHT III ENERGY MANAGEMENT, LLC118,037
24CORONADO ENERGY E&P COMP.,LLC117,275
25ODYSSEY PETROLEUM CORP.112,486
26KEY PRODUCTION COMPANY, INC.112,480
27QUANTUM RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, LLC97,808
28OSYKA PERMIAN, LLC92,715
29PETROCI USA INC.81,816
30BLACK JACK OIL CO., INC.81,765
31McGOWAN WORKING PARTNERS INC.81,089
32CIMAREX ENERGY COMPANY77,614
33ALDRIDGE OPERATING CO., LLC68,819
34CARL E. GUNGOLL EXPLORATION LLC66,626
35PAR MINERALS CORP61,889
36TIGER PRODUCTION COMPANY, LLC56,787
37MEASON OPERATING CO54,715
38SKRIVANOS ENGINEERING INC54,602
39SMITH OPERATING & MANAGEMENT54,181
40BURNSED OIL CO., INC.50,616
41MILAGRO EXPLORATION,LLC49,017
42NEVANEN ENERGY INC43,043
43SKLAR EXPLORATION CO.,L.L.C.39,699
44BIGLANE OPERATING COMPANY39,373
45WOMACK ENERGY INC38,720
46PARTRIDGE - RALEIGH, LLC37,454
47PINE RIDGE OPERATING, LP36,875
48REEF EXPLORATION, LP34,069
49LOGAN OIL LLC32,955
50RADZEWICZ OPERATING CORP32,849
51JUNCTION CITY OIL CO31,320
52ELAND ENERGY INC29,143
53OBRIEN ENERGY COMPANY28,901
54JETTA OPERATING COMPANY, INC.28,785
55PHOENIX OPERATING, INC26,720
56WILCOX ENERGY CO25,671
57PENN VIRGINIA OIL & GAS CORPORATION25,057
58JERRY P. OGDEN23,311
59R L P GULF STATES, LLC21,817
60LEWIS OIL CORP21,538
61CARDNEAUX INC21,328
62ALPINE WELL SERVICE, INC.20,116
63ANDERSON OPERATING, LLC20,109
64OGLESBY OIL CO.19,862
65CML EXPLORATION, LLC19,248
66SIGNAL, LLC18,535
67WORLDWIDE COMPANIES17,793
68HERON OPERATING, LLC17,289
69NEW OPERATING CO INC17,058
70MARLIN EXPLORATION, INC16,507
71DURANGO OPERATING LLC16,142
72PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES USA INC.15,293
73BARNHART CO.15,081
74UNIT PETROLEUM COMPANY14,801
75RANGE PRODUCTION COMPANY14,781
76THOMAS A. BLANTON14,208
77GRIFFIN & GRIFFIN EXPLORATION, LLC14,170
78AFFILIATED HOLDINGS, INC.13,914
79BPS13,833
80SAMSON RESOURCES CO13,789
81FORTENBERY OPERATING CO INC13,516
82J-W OPERATING CO13,157
83HAWKEYE DRILLING COMPANY12,826
84BTA OIL PRODUCERS12,640
85KFG PETROLEUM CORPORATION12,157
86CAVINS OILFIELD SERVICES, LLC.11,837
87WILL-DRILL PRODUCTION CO INC11,807
88WILLIAMS, KENNETH O. JR11,019
89FINLEY RESOURCES INC10,781
90BOB BERTOLET ET AL10,779
91ESCAMBIA OPERATING CO., LLC9,920
92PRO PETROLEUM OPER CORP9,813
93VONCO OF MISSISSIPPI, INC.9,809
94PETES PUMPING SERVICE9,569
95V. MONTA CURRIE, Jr. ET AL9,530
96M J OIL INC9,141
97TNT OPERATING LLC9,063
98CRIMSON EXLORATION OPERATING, INC.9,041
99ZADECK ENERGY GROUP INC8,613
100KEPCO OPERATING INC8,199
101S.W.D. ACIDIZING, INC.8,124
102POST OAK PRODUCTION CO7,974
103TARVER, GEORGE7,932
104PRIDE ENERGY CO.7,914
105EL TORO PRODUCTION CO INC7,750
106MIDSTATE ENERGY INC7,735
107WILLIAMS PRODUCING CO7,430
108SMITH PRODUCTION CO7,226
109P.O.& G. OPERATING, LLC7,106
110HARDEE ENERGY, LLC7,038
111E. B. GERMANY & SONS, LLC6,860
112BELLE OIL, INC.6,860
113EDMAR COMPANY, LLC (THE)6,641
114APEX PETROLEUM INC.6,592
115AMWAR EXPL. & ALLEN PETROLEUM6,530
116RED SANDS ENERGY, LLC6,189
117HARRINGTON OIL, INC.5,848
118HILCORP ENERGY COMPANY5,427
119QUESTAR EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION COMPANY5,417
120MIDROC OPER CO5,162
121MORROW OIL & GAS5,118
122HARMONY PRODUCING CO INC5,074
123RESOLVE ENERGY CORP5,053
124REMINGTON OIL AND GAS CORPORATION4,921
125CLARKCO SERVICES, INC.4,841
126ANDERSON-WILLIAMS4,820
127NOVY OIL & GAS INC4,665
128GIBRALTAR ENERGY CO4,567
129SCHMID PROPERTIES4,443
130DELPHI OIL INC.4,439
131CEDARHILL OPERATING CO LLC4,264
132AXIS ONSHORE, LLC4,057
133MARTINEAU PETROLEUM, INC.3,941
134HASSIE HUNT EXPL. CO.3,939
135VONCO OF MISSISSIPPI #23,886
136FLEMING MANAGEMENT, INC.3,844
137FOREMOST OPERATING, LLC FOR BUENA VISTA LLC3,656
138TMR EXPLORATION, INC.3,373
139TYLER PRODUCTION, LLC2,776
140W.K. MORRIS OPERATING CO.2,517
141SHIDLER, MARK L. , INC.2,502
142KEBERT PETROLEUM, LLC2,438
143HUGHES EASTERN CORPORATION2,297
144VINES OPERATING, LLC2,286
145PAR-CO DRILLING INC.1,993
146THOMPSON SERVICES INC1,933
147BENJAMIN VOYD COODY1,692
148ANNANDALE PRODUCTION CO., INC1,655
149CENTURY EXPLORATION COMPANY1,627
150THRESHOLD DEV. CO.1,580
151VENTEX OPERATING CORP.1,472
152KEY PROD. CO. INC.& MILLER OIL1,429
153CROWN EXPLO & PROD CO INC1,216
154CLIFTON & SON CRUDE OIL GAUGER1,181
155WHITE, CHARLES R1,054
156T. F. & B. OIL COMPANY, LLC928
157LLOG EXPLORATION COMPANY, L.L.C.906
158MISSALA INC767
159J-O'B OPERATING CO762
160CHAMPION OIL FIELD SERVICE, LLC739
161ALBERT E. SMITH725
162VERNON E. FAULCONER, INC.690
163ORION ENERGY PARTNERS L.P.673
164DOUBLE J INC.621
165WELL LEASE SERVICE571
166PETROQUEST ENERGY LLC557
167EAGLE OPERATING COMPANY, LLC554
168INLAND PETROLEUM, LLC525
169KAISER FRANCIS OIL CO458
170LAUREL FUEL CO443
171LOCIN OIL CORPORATION238
172SE USA OPERATING, INC.206
173PHOENIX ENERGY, INC.173
174RADZEWICZ EXPL. & DRLG. CORP.165
175E.B.S. PROPERTIES LLC81
176S. LAVON EVANS JR INC, ET AL35
177PETRO-HUNT, L.L.C.31
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