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Message: Risk ratio of rising commodities & falling stocks

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Risk ratio of rising commodities & falling stocks

posted on Feb 12, 09 11:40AM

Crude Oil Analysis
Crude Oil has been under continuous selling pressure for the past 7 months and this is the first buy signal I have had for it since it topped back in July 2008. The weekly chart is very close to a buy signal. If you look at the weekly chart of USO crude oil fund you will see that volume has shot through the roof which generally indicates a turning point. Also the MACD indicator is about to cross which will put this fund on a buy signal if things go well all of next week. The support trend line is trending up slightly and the down trend line is holding the price inside a small triangle. If the price breaks out and all my indicators are putting the odds in favor of a long trade, then we will be looking for a buy point on the weekly chart in the next few weeks. The weekly trading signals are good for intermediate and long term traders.

Conclusion:
The broad markets continued to move lower last week as it remains in a long term bear market. For those looking to take advantage of gold, silver and oil movements I recommend sticking with the commodity funds as they can increase in value while the broad market is selling off. The daily chart of the hui gold bugs index shows this clearly as gold stocks in general are underperforming the price of gold right now. There is an opportunity for oil to make a move higher if things come together in the next couple of weeks but until then we will be patient and let the trade come to us.

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