A back to the future finance style. But seriously though, why weren't the alarms triggered sooner? A...nobody was looking.

I was.

I saw a 6% growth in the economy in 2004, 6.2 in 05, 6.8 in 06 7.1 in 07 and then a half a percentage point growth in 08 (due to the crash). Even if you add up all these numbers the market at 14000 doesn't make any prudent financial sense.

If you follow the economy in its bigger picture you will see our economy is not much worse (or better) today than it was in 2004. Or before that. What happened last year was self correcting all the fun stuff about finance; speculation and future trades. Stuff that is really hard to quantify.

I stand by my opinion stated here. For Canada, this all started with the oil and will end with oil price recovery. Unless of course people stop driving cars, living in homes et al.