fouremm – my comment re: AZN and PFE was WRT RVX only, I don’t think what happens between them will be relevant to any potential deal timing with RVX. Someone posted on this board a couple of weeks ago that AZN was not listed on the attendees at this conference so I was not at all surprised they weren’t there.
WRT a CVR, I built myself a model with many different scenarios to give me a reasonable idea of what I could expect if a deal came along so I will give you some of the highlights only.
-assumes successful completion of BETonMACE with a minimum of 30% RRR
-assumes that if RRR is between 25% and 30% an additional 1200 patient recruits will be required and adding approximately one year to the BETonMACE trial timeline
-assumes that if we don’t reach at least 25% RRR this lottery ticket just turned into trash.
-assumes 2.5% to 3.5% of populations in the developed world have a diabetic cardio problem and would see the biggest benefit from using our product, RVX208. I took these numbers from the World Diabetes Website. Between 12 and 20 million patients
-assumes low end pricing of $2200/yr and 50% market penetration to a high of $5000/yr and 70% market penetration.
Potential annual sales
-low $2 billion
-mid $5 to $10 billion (actual 44 billion)
-high $25 to $35 billion (actually the high came in at $70 billion but it made my graph looked silly)
From deals that have happened in the past with other companies, final amounts have been in the range of 25% to 100% of potential annual sales. I can not personally see a BP paying a mid range amount up front with over two years until final data is out. I can however see BP attempt to lock RVX up in the mid range with a deal in the 25% to 35% of potential annual sales being somewhere in the $5 to $10 billion dollar range in a CVR type of arrangement that would close on final data being delivered.
Final data; you say mid 2018 and I said mid 2019. I was not able to find the timeline chart that has been presented by RVX in the past on their web site however I do recall that the trial would be finished mid 2018 and final data would be announced Q1/Q2 2019. Please feel free to correct me if anyone has access to a past presentation that clarifies this point for us.
Bottom line, if the moon and stars line up and RVX208 does what they claim it does in a safe manor this could end up being the single largest selling drug on the planet to this point. By any measure this is a lottery ticket that could make us very happy or have us walking away scratching our heads saying what just hit me!
Best data ever to come out on RVX, the patent application for combo Crestor/RVX208