On March 25th BDAZ put out his estimate of how many events we could see and when the Futility Study results may be ready for dissemination. I had a poke at an estimate as well. This morning KK2 questioned whether Apabetalone fixes diabetes for which BDAZ gave some great commentary. 

All this chatter made me go back and review the slides from the Bio-Europe presentation 3/21/17 http://www.resverlogix.com/upload/media_element/271/01/rvx-bio-europe-2017.pdf  posted under the President's DD to the right hand side of our Agoracom page. At the risk of sounding like a scratched record, looking at the charts on slide 14 and the cumulative events for both DM patients and hsCRP patients I made these observations. For the DM patients the cumulative events in the placebo group plateaued around 12% and about 3% in the 208 dosed group at around 180 days when dosing finished. Now from 180 to 210 days the cumulative event rate in the placebo group increased about 43% (from 12% to 21%ish on the bottom left chart) and for the 208 group the event rate increase about 66% after dosing finished (from 3% to 5%ish). An observation from the path of the events for the 208 dosed group was that it appears to take about two weeks for our drug to wash out and the event rate to increase whereas in the placebo group the event rate just started increasing immediately. This effect was not the same on the chart on the bottom right for the hsCRP group.

There was a 77% RRR for the 208 dosed group as shown on this chart for the DM patients. This help me understand BDAZ's comments about all of the effects that Apabetalone has on DM patients however if the event rate for the 208 group continues to be maintained while being dosed and the placebo group continues to have an experience like shown in that chart our RRR could be in excess of 77%. Of course the events in the chart are all events and not just 3 point MACE events.

The point I am trying to make is that after 6 months the cumulative event rate for the placebo group was zooming ahead while the 208 group was being maintained. When I now combined this info with the recruiting formula that BDAZ used in his estimate for the timing of the Futility Study coming out http://agoracom.com/ir/Resverlogix/forums/discussion/topics/687592-betonmace-enrollment/messages/2143512#message , we could see the event rate increase dramatically from this point forward as we are now 6 months after recruiting increased dramatically. There is a 50% placebo group in this study and only a 25% placebo group in the previous 2 studies.

I like our odds based on these observations. DYODD

tada