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Message: Fundamentals of Junior Gold

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Fundamentals of Junior Gold

posted on May 28, 08 12:23PM

Highlights:

  • Gold correction most probably over (bottomed out at $850)
  • Junior sector just recovering from deepest over-sold condition since late 2002
  • CDNX has started outperforming gold over the last few weeks
  • Previous bottoms in CDNX/GOLD ratio were being characterized by sharp up-moves that lasted for many months
  • CDNX/GOLD ratio charts leave plenty of room for a giant up-move that could last for more than a year
  • Sentiment in junior sector has hit an all time low. This is a dream scenario from a contrarian perspective.

Reasons why juniors will be watched (by major gold producers and investors):

  • The industry is not replacing the reserves it is mining every year
  • High grade mines are running out of ore.
  • Even with gold at $1000/oz , it still takes four to seven years to open a mine.
  • The industry isn't going to be able to respond immediately to higher gold prices.
  • Reserves will be depleted in less than 10 years at current annual production rates
  • The industry needs some major new finds desperately. Since 1999 only a very few world class gold deposits have been found.
  • Majors are forced to acquire juniors because of the need for more reserves
  • Juniors making discoveries are phenomenally profitable.

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