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Message: Industry Bulletin - Central Banks and Gold Sales

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Good article on Gold

in response to Industry Bulletin - Central Banks and Gold Sales by AGORACOM

posted on Jul 22, 08 11:45AM

By Gary Tanashian

Yes, gold. What else? After I likely take a small loss on the QQQQ today, precious metals & cash/short term treasuries will be my only positions. I want to focus on the metal, not the miners today. After all, the gold miners are a speculative playground (and you know I spend a great deal of time playing there) and in my book are not to be viewed as long term investments of the quality of gold bullion. The miners are a part of the market casino. Although they are in a legitimate secular bull market of their own, they are companies after all. They are stocks and they carry all the risk inherent therein. But you know the line on gold bullion; pays no interest and no one's liability... good portfolio insurance... protection from government terrorism upon your native paper currency. On and on goes the list of why sober, sane people would value gold.

Here are daily, weekly & monthly charts for the metal. The daily remains in the uptrend channel toward our target of the March highs out of an inverted head & shoulders pattern. Nope, nothin' wrong here.

The weekly chart shows a bull market beyond question, though so many seem so insistent on questioning it. This is a human behavioral issue in that it is driven by pure emotion instead of fundamental rationality and technical analysis. I put a fork in here just for fun.

Then there is the monthly. I remember back late last year when Goldman issued a warning on gold based on their technical analysts' view that monthly momentum was fading. Their target? 600. I had a chuckle then and wrote something along the lines of 'gold may indeed correct, but it certainly won't be due to declining monthly momo'. If you are still like the majority and taking market cues from the main stream media you might want to reconsider this tact. It does not work. Got that? Monthly gold is super healthy and in fact, is in 'danger' of an upside blowoff as the herd begins to sweat. Watch the EMA 18 which has been the backbone of the entire bull market. Too far above that average and we will be subject to wild swings.