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Message: Robert Cohen, Background

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Robert Cohen, Background

posted on Oct 31, 07 07:44PM

I found this aricle from May 2003 - gives background on Cohen and perspective on his approach - seems consistent with what he is still doing.

Robert Cohen 

Robert Cohen

Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel
 
Precious metals manager has confidence in gold's long-term fundamentals.
 
by Michael Ryval | 9 May 03 

An avowed gold bug, Robert Cohen believes in investing in a cross-section of gold producers and exploration firms. "The global precious metals sector is a relatively small one. What you can do is get exposure to the different segments within the asset class," says the senior portfolio analyst with Goodman & Co., Investment Counsel, who manages the $130.9-million Dynamic Canadian Precious Metals and the $13.9-million Dynamic Global Precious Metals.

Cohen values senior producers by studying their asset bases, the quality of management, shareholder structures and balance sheets. "If these pass, I will model out each mine, and come up with a specific valuation." Exploration firms are somewhat different and trade at a discount to their cash flow. On that basis, he engages in traditional net asset value analysis to determine if the stock is good value.

One tool he uses is so-called option value pricing, which helps to measure the premiums that gold companies attract. "If you told a generalist to buy Newmont Mining Corp. at two times net asset value, he would say, 'get lost.' A lot of people don't understand why they should pay a premium. That's why gold stocks trade in their own universe," he says.

"But besides using hard numbers, you need an intuitive feel to know where a company stands—for instance, are its projects at bankable levels, or are they still in the pre-feasibility stage?"

A native of Vancouver, the 34-year-old Cohen came to a deep-held interest in mining by a family route. Like his father and brother, he's an engineer. "I've been exposed to the industry since I was a child," says Cohen, who graduated from the University of British Columbia in 1992 with a degree in mining and mineral process engineering.

Cohen worked as a mineral process engineer for four and a half years. He spent two years in Chile working for Aurex Resources Corp., a junior Canadian copper producer, plus six months with BHP Minerals Pty. Ltd. at its Escondida copper mine.

In 1996, after a short stint in Australia, he returned to UBC to complete his MBA. "I learned how to value companies at Aurex. I really liked that and wanted to get into this end of the business, either on the sell side or the buy side," he recalls.

In 1997, he completed a summer internship at Toronto-based Goodman & Co. That experience turned into a full-time job in 1998 where he worked with several members of the Goodman equity team. In May 2000, he was promoted to manager of the two precious metals funds carrying the Dynamic brand name.

Last October [2002], he also became manager of the $6.8-million StrategicNova World Precious Metals, after the takeover of StrategicNova Inc. by Dynamic Mutual Funds Ltd.'s parent, Dundee Wealth Management Inc.

Cohen tends to hold about 35 stocks in each fund. The top 10 names account for about two-thirds of each portfolio. "As a company's assets get developed, you can have more exploration success. So we've picked the best of the best," he says. His annual portfolio turnover is in the 30% range.

Dynamic Canadian Precious Metals was a top-quartile performer in 2001, and was in the second quartile last year. Meanwhile, Dynamic Global Precious Metals slipped from the top quartile in 2001 to third quartile in 2002.

Both of these funds, along with StrategicNova World Precious Metals, were below-average performers in the first quarter. Hardest hit was Dynamic Global Precious Metals, down 19.9%. Currency fluctuations in Australia and South Africa hurt the profitability of some of the fund's holdings there, though most of the quarterly loss was attributable to the general downturn in gold stocks.

Cohen says that the precious metals sector has been suffering because of the removal of the so-called Iraqi war premium, which saw gold bullion drop to about US$334 an ounce from a high of almost US$380 in early February.

Yet he is confident that the long-term fundamentals are very positive. The primary driver of gold prices is the weakness of the U.S. dollar. The dollar should fall further, he maintains, because of the massive current account deficit in the U.S. Moreover, he expects interest rates to rise, and inflation to become much more of a concern. He says this should generate interest in bullion, a traditional inflation hedge.

"What sets this decade apart from the 1980s and 1990s is that gold production is declining," says Cohen. "Primary gold supply is declining, central bank sales are constant, but demand is fairly robust. The fundamentals point to a higher gold price."

 

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