gene arensberg's new "got gold" report is out, and he draws a parallel from today to august, 2005, when the shorts were overrun and the metals rallied sharply for several months. as always, this is a long report, and well worth reading, but here is a snippet:

With a nod to the Trading Gods (so as not to offend them too much), the action right now is reminiscent of the last time the short-happy COMEX commercials were overrun – for months and months – beginning in August, 2005, as gold first challenged, then tested, then blew through the very staunch defenses thrown up by the hedgers and short sellers in the $450 - $475 region. Gold went on to test the $730s the following May, some 60% higher than where the commercials took their “goal line stand” that August of “ought-five.” (A similar move in this event would take gold up to around $1,520 the ounce, give or take $100. That’s not a prediction, just an observation.)

http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2009/Nov/17/Got-Gold-Report--COMEX-commercial-shorts-in-retrea