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Message: Oil Prices 2007 and 2008

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rich47

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Oil Prices 2007 and 2008

posted on Feb 03, 08 12:15AM

Normally crude prices fall back towards the early spring, as some North American refiners gear down for annual maintenance, thus reducing the need for crude and lowering prices. Very early last year I disagreed with some analysts who stated oil would fall back to the $40 dollar range, and thought crude would stay at a minimum of $50/bl. It did fall to the $50 level. Later on in early 2007 I stated on these bull boards that crude prices would reach a minimum of $70/bl and with any disruption reach $80 to $100/bl.

For 2008 my thoughts would be that crude would fall back to the $55-$60 level, and although still early in the winter looks like my prognosis is completely out to lunch. As a consumer of oil products I'm horrified, however as an investor of energy stocks I'm tickled pink. It is still early to make a call on crude, as refiners are still in relatively high production mode, however I am reasonably confident that 2008 should be at a minimum of $80 (early spring) peaking to $90-$110/bl late summer and with any disruptions exceed $110/bl. rich47.

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