Highly speculative, BUT I will go out on a limb here and suggest that this worldwide credit crisis will actually help TTQ rise above the ashes and jump up a few spots on the preferred Moly explorer pecking order.
Why?
This crisis will reduce the number of explorers because of their inability to get financing. Many will go into care and maintenance mode, merge, sell out or close shop.
Likewise on the producer side... many new projects will not get the required financing to move new deposits forward OR reopen old deposits - especially with Moly falling back to low 20's. Reopening old projects doesn't look as feasible as they did at $35 moly.
So... how does this help TTQ out? They are in the dreaded time between the excitement of the discovery hole and production. The time when all explorer share price normally tracks sideways and does nothing. Except, in TTM's case, this is perfect timing given they have working capital. They can continue to move ahead and this is a great advantage over many other explorers who are now treading water. I also believe that they are closing the gap on several near producers and current producers looking at new projects for the same reason: financing is difficult to secure.
"IF" demand comes back - and you have to believe that it will. TTQ will be closer to participating at the production level and have widened the gap from their exploration peers. The spike in demand that was forcasted last year will still be there... execpt it will now slip a year or 2 forward... meaning that TTQ "could" come in at the beginning of it as opposed to the end of it.
Of course... this is all contingent on:
1) Their ability to secure financing in a year or so. Hopefully the credit markets will have thawed out by then.
2) Continued speed of execution, and
3) It would sure help if they closed a deal to get used equpiment, and
4) Securing permits, First Nations agreements etc... etc...
m.z.
