Agoracom

Look at these fast facts:

August 26, 2008

We have never felt more certain of a call than the one we are now making: The TSX Venture Exchange, which plummeted 29% from July 2 thru August 19 (34 trading sessions), is actually now in the very beginning stages of a significant rally that should intensify next week when volumes pick up following the Labour Day long weekend. We presented our case for this in our Sunday, August 25 article, and today we examine in further detail just how far this market could go.

With a major drop in gold, the Venture Exchange plunged 29% over just 22 trading sessions. After the bottom was reached in mid-June, the Index climbed 14% in 14 trading days and exactly 20% over 57 sessions before reaching 2,800 in early September (another plunge followed that).

2. Late July-August, 2007

This 29% drop of course was fueled by the emergence of the “credit crisis” and also a sharp fall in gold. After bottoming out at 2,350 August 16, the market went on a tear and 56 sessions later reached a high of 3,200, an increase of 850 points or 36%.

3. October-January, 2008

After bottoming out in mid-January at 2,350, the Venture Exchange immediately took off and rose 19% to 2,800 over the next 27 trading sessions.

So, as you can see, we’ve had short-term rallies of 20% (57 sessions), 36% (56 sessions) and 19% (27 trading sessions) following the three most recent major sell-offs in the Venture Exchange (the average percentage increase being 25% over an average period of 47 trading sessions).

A reversal in the Venture Exchange’s 10-day moving average this week which means a strong close for the week to set the stage for the start of some fireworks right after Labour Day.