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Message: The run to deadline

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The run to deadline

posted on Nov 05, 09 02:35AM

Hi All;

Would like to hear some perspectives on what others think will happen to the SP of NOT and FWR over the next 2 weeks.

From the Noront Offer to Purchase:

"The intention to make the Offer was publicly announced on October 5, 2009. The Common Shares are listed on Tier 2 of the TSX Venture Exchange (the “TSX-V”) under the symbol “FWR”. The Noront Common Shares are listed on Tier 2 of the TSX-V under the symbol “NOT”. The Offer represents a premium of approximately 26% over the October 2, 2009 closing price of the Common Shares on the TSX-V of $0.315, based on a closing price of $1.59 per Noront Common Share on the TSX-V on that same date, which was the last trading day prior to Noront’s announcement of its intention to make an Offer. The Offer also represents a premium of approximately 51% based on the respective volume weighted average trading prices of the Noront Common Shares and the Common Shares on the TSX-V for the 30 calendar days ended October 2, 2009."

This being said, is there a push on to keep the SP of NOT where it is at or near the $1.59? Yesterday there was some momentum and the SP and hit a high of $1.73 before retracting to $1.65. FWR has come down gently over the last week to $0.48. This disparity is still off the 1 for 4 NOT has offered and is about 1:3.4. Half a share when you hold many is significant.

Let's say things stay the way they are, no more NRs, no dealbreakers or barnburners. How much manipulation will there continue to be, driven by who, and will NOT go up, or FWR come down? Thoughts please?

It is really quite a sad statement that NOT is staying at the under $2 SP when they have so much in the ground, continued finds and delineation, gold, talks of infrastructure, takeovers, Native agreements and JV agreements. They move forward but the SP sits idle and has dropped significantly from prior to the NR of the FWR takeover bid. Manipulation to drive the SP lower to keep in ratio with FWR? Again this leads me to believe that FWR stands on its own, and the value we see in the SP is intrinsic, not extrinsic. I just can't believe that if this takeover were to not be on the table NOTs SP would be where it is today. IMVHO.

Please share your thoughts on this post.

Thanks in advance.

Cheers.

B.

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