First, for disclosure purposes, I will say I own NOT and FWR shares along with other area plays as well. In addition, my holdings in NOT are higher than that of any of the other area plays.
Second, at this time, given the current share prices of NOT vs FWR, it doesn't make any sense to tender my FWR shares for NOT shares. I would be better off to sell my FWR shares and purchase NOT shares. Now, if NOT moves up and or FWR moves down, I would surely reconsider my position.
Third, I believe a combined company does add value to both NOT and FWR, and to all the other area players. Cost savings would be made in one management team, one drill plan, negociations with natives and government officials on one front, and most of all savings on infrastructure costs (planning and execution). Having said that, it doesn't matter to me if NOT takes out FWR or if FWR takes out NOT. But, as mentioned above, I will not tender my shares unless it makes sense to do so.
Fourth, with respect to management. I have some trust issues with respect to NOT management. The events surrounding the windfall property have me puzzled. I like what MAC did with spinning off Quest and I would have liked to see the same done with Windfall. Now, to confuse matters more, seems FWR and MGR followed suit in handing over thier interests in Windfall as well. From what I've seen of MAC, I like him. I think he is down to earth and all. However, the team that NOT has put together....well, it looks quite strong and competent. I continue to believe that in the end they will look out for themself, but, as a shareholder, I believe I will benefit.
Fifth point, NOT has several properties with economic potential. They have the eagle's nest, Titanium, vanadium, and recently gold, not to mention their chrome. If there was no market for Chrome, they have other deposits to focus their resources to. So far, FWR really only has the chrome. Now, I'm not downplaying thier chrome though, as on the surface it appears to be a better deposit than NOT's blackbird deposits. But, it's still like putting all your eggs in one basket. A combined company is more diversified.
The purpose of my post here is to try to present a more balanced analysis as I find the majority of the posts recently are quite slanted depending on which board you are reading.
In summary, I think the combined companies do add value, I will not tender my FWR shares unless it makes sense to do so (price wise). At this point in time, it doesn't. However, that may change...and I'm hoping it does.
