We simply don't have enough concrete evidence to be able to defeat every argument for or against FWR's long term success.
We don't because, if we did, we'd be getting information from an inside source illegally.
So, we do the best we can with the information at hand, the information provided by the company through drilling and exploration updates, and the track record of the company. And, I suppose, the "tells" that FWR and NOT are revealing in their respective poker games.
We don't see an overblown NR or aggrandized reports. What we see is a cautious optimism, with plenty of disclaimers, so that no one accepts this as the gospel truth. Under-promise, over-deliver is what I'm seeing written in between the lines.
One can reasonably deduce that there will be a full array of assays sometime in the future that will (let's hope) blow these early numbers out of the water. Remember, PGE's are no-see-ums, visually undetectable, so until they are assayed, one wouldn't know of their existence, or grades.
I guess that's the beauty of FWR having a smaller land package as compared to others in the Ring. They know their property intimately. They haven't been chasing the yet-elusive dream of drilling a follow-up to NOT's Eagle 1. They know they have high-grade chromite, and lots of it, and they ignored the hecklers who told them "Nobody wants your chromite....not without nickel". They drilled and delineated and learned what they had. How much do you think they understand about their own property that they're not divulging?
I'm hearing time and again that the PGE's are uneconomical at these grades, and perhaps that's true. At what grades are they economic and worth fighting tooth and nail for in a takeover bid? Would it have been better for us if we had none at all? Will some kind soul PLEASE tell us when we're worth having? LOL
We, as investors, simply don't know as fact if FWR will pull a rabbit out of the hat with some very rich PGE grades. We don't. The only other comparable PGE complex in NA is the Stillwater deposit in Montana. http://www.mining-technology.com/projects/stillwater/
Will we find those grades? Who knows! Perhaps having such a rich chromite find and having the audacity to ask for stand-alone, economically viable PGE's is akin to lightning striking twice.
Even with Mungall's guidance, and his mentor Naldrett's consultation, there is nothing about the ROF and furthering the discoveries that has been anything like shooting fish in a barrel. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it. Even with some of the best minds trying to crack the code, the earth yields her secrets grudgingly. Here's another link to impress upon us the fact that even the scientists admit on occasion that they never knew the earth could behave in a certain fashion:
http://www.livescience.com/environment/091102-africa-rift-ocean.html
On another note, all this talk that FWR was on life-support until NOT came along to "boost" their SP; how do we know the rise in SP wasn't a leak? Perhaps the timing of the hostile bid was cleverly calculated to disguise FWR rising on it's own merits. This too, is not a fact, but remains a possibility.
Personally, I'm rooting for the guys who actually drill and deliver versus the suits who plot and scheme all the day long, even though I have money invested with both parties.
But that's just my amateur, unsubstantiated opinion.