Fidelity's “investment clock” last week moved from the recovery stage of the economic cycle and ticked into “overheat” for the first time since 2007 — putting commodities firmly into favour.
They have had a strong run so far this year: the Dow Jones Industrial Metals index has soared 57% since the start of 2009. However, Fidelity is not alone in thinking commodities have farther to go, as global growth returns and demand from emerging markets rises.
Mike Lenhoff, at Brewin Dolphin, the broker, believes copper could surge 45%, if China’s economy returns to double-digit growth, while Bryan Collings, who manages the Ignis International Hexam Global Emerging Markets fund, has pencilled in an increase of 25% in the next 18 months.
Collings believes gold, which last week breached the $1,000 an ounce mark, could rise some 20% to $1,200 by the end of 2010, while David Donora, head of commodities at Threadneedle, expects it to hit $1,500 in the next two years. “Increased demand from emerging-market countries, especially China and India, and supply constraints are likely to bolster prices,” said Donora.
Commodities — including copper and other industrial metals, such as aluminium — now account for 13% of the Fidelity Multi Asset Strategic fund, a fund-of-funds, up from zero in February.
Here, we examine the outlook for five commodities:
GOLD
The gold price jumped to its highest level in almost 18 months last week — boosted by investors looking for a hedge against inflation.
Investec Asset Management believes it could rally another 10%-15%, but thinks investors could profit more from mining stocks, rather than gold bullion. Rupert Robinson, chief executive of Schroders Private Bank, agrees, noting that the gold price has shot up about 40% in the past two years, while gold-mining firms have gained just 20%.
Ian Henderson, manager of the JP Morgan Natural Resources fund, has recently increased his holdings in gold miners from 27% to 34%.
Mick Gilligan at Killik, the broker, likes the Black Rock Gold and General fund, which has about 80% of its holdings in gold miners. It is up 27% since the start of the year. Lenhoff, at Brewin Dolphin, recommends investors put 2%-3% of their portfolio in gold.
SILVER
Despite silver falling 28% in 2008, compared with gold’s 4%, it is the former that has been the clear winner this year: the S&P GSCI Silver index has risen 46.4% since the start of 2009, while gold has made just 11.8%.
John Kelly, at discount broker Chelsea Financial Services, said: “The advantage of silver is that it can be a hedge against inflation — like gold — but also benefits from increased industrial growth as it is used in the production of a whole host of electrical goods.”
He tips JP Morgan Natural Resources, which holds a basket of energy and metal stocks, including silver miners.
It has returned 68% in the year to date. Ben Yearsley at Hargreaves Lansdown, the adviser, likes ETFS Physical Silver, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that costs 0.49% a year.
PLATINUM
Nearly half (44%) of platinum supplies is used in the manufacture of catalytic converters for cars. Demand from China is, again, expected to stoke demand.
Nick Price, manager of the Fidelity Emerging Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa fund, said: “The lowest-cost producers, such as Impala Platinum of South Africa, will benefit from a recovery in global demand.” Shares in Impala are up 43% this year. Gilligan, of Killik, tips Lonmin, up 71%.
COPPER
The price of copper has soared 102% since January, and Evy Hambro, manager of the Black Rock Gold & General fund, believes a shortage of supply and growing demand will continue to stoke prices.
There are 53,000 tonnes of copper that can be traded in the world today, according to industry figures — a far cry from the 400,000 tonnes in 2002.
Collings, of Ignis, likes Kazakhmys, an international mining and metals company, which mainly operates in Kazakhstan but is listed on the London Stock Exchange. Its shares are up a huge 226% this year.
Investors could also consider ETFS Copper, an ETF that tracks copper futures, up 63% this year and costing 0.5% a year, though you’ll also have to pay broker commission when you buy.
URANIUM
There is a relatively plentiful supply of uranium — used in the production of nuclear energy — but it is expensive to extract and refine.
However, interest in nuclear energy — which meets about 15% of the world’s electricity needs — has revived in recent years amid concerns over climate change. There are 436 nuclear reactors worldwide and a further 50 are currently under construction.
Gilligan tips Geiger Counter, a Jersey-domiciled investment company that invests in firms involved in producing uranium for the nuclear industry. Run by New City Investment Managers, it’s made some 200% so far this year.
You could also consider the ETFX Global Nuclear Energy fund, which tracks the nuclear energy company sector. It has risen 24% this year and costs an annual 0.65%.