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Molybdenum market holds around 12-month highs, China holds line on offers

posted on Feb 28, 08 05:28AM
Molybdenum market holds around 12-month highs, China holds line on offers

By Martin Hayes - Senior Correspondent, martin@minormetals.com (+44 (0)20 7929 6339)

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London, 26 February 2008 - Molybdenum prices were stable and sitting at their highest for 12 months in Europe on Tuesday, helped by general trends in the noble-alloys -- vanadium is at its highest since 2005.

"It is actually quiet, but it is very steady at the moment and there is no sign of prices coming off -- the Chinese are keeping their offers up," a trader said.


Western and Chinese grade ferro-molybdenum (FEMO) prices were indicated at $79.00/80.00 and $80.0081.00 a kilo respectively, while Western and Chinese molybdenum-oxide (MO3) were indicated at respective levels of $33.50/34.50 and $32.50/33.50.

The slightly unsual premium for Chinese metal is because producers there are looking to nudge the price up.

Analysts expect a tight market this year, as by-product output from key copper producers will be hit by declining molybdenum ore grades.

In 2006, total molybdenum supply was 428.6 million pounds, with demand reaching 439 million. Last year, supply was around 430.2 million pounds, but demand is seen strong at 455 million pounds. This has generated shortfalls of some 10 million and 24 million pounds respectively, which has had to be made up by scrap recovery.

Molybdenum supply has largely remained stable, as lower production by Western producers has been offset by increased output from China. The US is the world's biggest producer of molybdenum -- it has a 33 percent market share -- with China accounting for 22 percent.

CHINA EXPORT TRENDS

Despite rising production in China -- output was nearly five percent higher in 2007 at some 101 million pounds -- the country's exports are in a downtrend.

The country's high level of steel production and consumption is generating strong internal consumption of molybdenum, while there is limited production in the Huludao area of Liaoning Province.

Molybdenum, a by-product of copper that is used in steel alloying, saw a meteoric price move in 2005. FEMO, which for most of the early 2000s was stable around $8.00 a kg, soared as a result of cutbacks and disruptions in copper production.

The market hit record highs of $100 in 2005, and although there has been a downward reaction since then, prices at current levels are still a significant boost to earnings of copper miners.
MinorMetals.com
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