The following details 5 different valuations of Goldstone Resources, assuming that the company was to go into production. The valuations are broken down into 5 different categories: Very Conservative, Conservative, Moderate, Optimistic, and Very Optimistic. In every scenario, the valuation values the company higher than it is today.
Assumptions and Notes
1) The biggest assumption is that the company actually does go into production. These valuations are all based on that. The valuation model would be different during the pre-production phase. A popular model is to use 10% the POG * # of ounces.
2) All valuations assume that the Roxmark/Ontex merger does go through, and the opening price of Goldstone Resources is $0.81.
3) I do not include cash, the value of the mill, or any of Roxmark's other properties (Leitch, Northern empire) for the valuations. For simplicity, I'm only including Ontex's property, and the Hard Rock project.
4) All valuations assume that the proposed consolidations go through, and all prices are stated on a post consolidation basis, and assume that Goldstone will have approximately 100M shares outstanding when it enters the TSX.
Very Conservative:
Brookbank Ounces: 1M - this would mean ONT only added ~150k ounces to the estimate in all of 2009.
Hard Rock Ounces: 1M - Goldstone would control 0.3M ounces (30% interest)
Price of gold: $800/ounce - we will assume POG plummets
Cost to mine: $600/ounce - a very high estimate
Profit: $200/ounce
Total Ounces: 1.3M
Net: $200/ounce * 1.3M ounces = $260M
Share Value: Goldstone will have ~97M shares outstanding after merger. Assume Goldstone issues 75M shares between now and production and there are 175M shares outstanding. This values one share at $1.48. Ontex is trading at ~$0.27 currently, so we will assume 1 Goldstone share is presently valued at $0.81. This marks a 82% ROI.
Conservative:
Brookbank Ounces: 1.1M
Hard Rock Ounces: 1.5M - Goldstone would control 0.45M ounces (30% interest)
Price of gold: $900/ounce - gold falls about $200/ounce
Cost to mine: $550/ounce
Profit: $350/ounce
Total Ounces: 1.55M
Net: $350/ounce * 1.55M ounces = $542.5M
Share Value: Assume Goldstone issues 50M shares between now and production and there are 150M shares outstanding. This values one share at $3.61. This marks a 346% ROI.
Moderate:
Brookbank Ounces: 1.4M
Hard Rock Ounces: 1.75M - Goldstone would control 0.525M ounces (30% interest)
Price of gold: $1100/ounce - gold maintains current price
Cost to mine: $500/ounce
Profit: $600/ounce
Total Ounces: 1.925M
Net: $600/ounce * 1.925M ounces = $1.155B
Share Value: Assume Goldstone issues 50M shares between now and production and there are 150M shares outstanding. This values one share at $7.70. This marks a 850% ROI.
Optimistic:
Brookbank Ounces: 1.6M
Hard Rock Ounces: 2M - Goldstone would control 0.6M ounces (30% interest)
Price of gold: $1300/ounce - gold rises from current price
Cost to mine: $500/ounce
Profit: $800/ounce
Total Ounces: 2.2M
Net: $800/ounce *2.2M ounces = $1.76B
Share Value: Assume Goldstone issues 50M shares between now and production and there are 150M shares outstanding. This values one share at $11.73. This marks a 1348% ROI.
Very Optimistic:
Brookbank Ounces: 2M
Hard Rock Ounces: 3M - Goldstone would control 0.9M ounces (30% interest)
Price of gold: $1500/ounce - gold sky rockets
Cost to mine: $500/ounce
Profit: $1000/ounce
Total Ounces: 2.9M
Net: $1000/ounce *2.9M ounces = $2.9B
Share Value: Assume Goldstone issues 50M shares between now and production and there are 150M shares outstanding. This values one share at $19.33. This marks a 2286% ROI.
Please discuss.
