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Message: New investors - Questions!

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Re: New investors - Questions!

in response to New investors - Questions! by LL
posted on Oct 24, 09 03:54PM

Hi LL, good question.

From watching the AMS story, the likelyhood of getting a single $25 million contract at this time is slim, I guess not impossible but slim. The majority of deals are from $1-2.5 million range because they're with smaller airlines. The reason I believe is because the larger legacy airlines tend to be using and are under contract with ACARS which IMO will take 10-15 years before these aircraft start to get retired at which time the doors will open more for newer technologies.

New contracts tend to take anywhere from 6-18 months before they are fully installed and generating revenues because the airlines wait for the aircraft to be scheduled for C checks to perform the installations.

Here's a possible scenerio using PIA and making some assumptions ie the cost of a terra unit at $75,000 and a monthly recurring revenue of $1500 per unit. PIA has 39 aircraft (as per wikipedia) so assuming all of them could be installed, it would add up to $2,925,000 for the units. recurring revenue would be $702,000 per year or $3,510,000 over five years or $6,435,000 for the total deal. So to reach $25 million, it would take approximately 150+/- aircraft, again, this is very simplified, in the real world it's never that cut and dry. I have no idea what the planned cost of the unit is or what the monthlys are, I'm simply making a guess at those numbers. Your best bet is ask IR so you can make your own calculations.

Hope that helps, I'd love to hear about other observations in the industry. Good health,

RXG

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