Oh my gosh BL! I really question your understanding of how this business model works.
I'm missing something in your post. How do you figure using .50 as your starting point, right now, sna is at .05 with an additional 30 million outstanding shares. Your comments sound as if a deal were to be signed today that magically all this money will appear in the bank account. The revenues are gradually earned over the period of the contract. Share price values go up on earned revenues and potential future revenues. It takes many months to facilitate installs, revenues are slow to start. Even if you divided a $25 million contract evenly by a term a five years(which isn't the way it works) that's still only $5 million per year of revenue; this wouldn't make the company profitable and certainly doesn't make it worth $2-2.50 per share.
Where do you come up with these valuations? At best guess, AMS has a total of $40-50 million in total contracts (excluding China) signed which for this year should produce around $8-10 million of earned revenues with a share price of $.50 and substantially fewer shares outstanding. How is a $25 mil contract, (not earned revenue) going to ramp up to $2.00? Not logical BL.
Just wondering what the actual value of your guarantee is if that $25 million contract doesn't show up. Very dangerous statement! People, do your DD, speak to your accountants, speak to your brokers about these claims, DO NOT take my word or BL's word in these posts, get professional third party advice. Get a clear understanding of how the business model works in the real world. If you're patient, when SNA earns $100-200 mil in contracts then IMO you may see something close to the valuations that BL is referring to. It's a lot of planes people, although done on old pricing, the China deal for 500 planes had a potential value around $100 mil for the term of I think 5 years. Look to the Research Capital report to see how a professional values a companies share price. It's taken something like 4 years to get the contracts AMS has, you decide how long to wait it out. Would I do another 4-5 year hold period to see big returns, I doubt it, too much can happen in that time frame. I've learned that it takes a lot of effort and time to get 200 units installed in planes. I'm happy with the AMS management and their efforts to-date just like you be with the SNA management when they get to this stage of sales if you're prepared to wait. IMO be realistic about the future value of the shares.
Here's the link
http://www.howardgroupinc.com/clients/ama_research_oct1609.pdf
And before anybody gets their panties in a bunch, this link isn't to promote one IR over the other, it's the only link I know of that has the report.
Good health all
