LOLOLOLOL, that's rich coming from you. I do however appreciate you acknowledging that what I was talking about has some validity, I've invested a lot of time learning about this subject. I guess you of all people would know what's accurate and what isn't.
Thanks for critiquing my numbers, I was counting on you to be able to fill in the blanks. The last numbers I had were four years old from eResearch stating that sna was marketing the units for $240,000 with an expected $1000 monthly recurring revenue. I was curious to see how competitive the pricing is now. I'm sure you took the time to read the Research Cap reports putting the AMS units somewhere between $75-100,000, I guess this puts marketing on a more level playing field now.
Here's the link from eresearch, lots of good info, it certainly would have gotten me interested at the time.
Some highlights:
-we estimate blended 2006/2007 earnings per share of $0.07. A P/E multiple ranging from 10x-14x translates into a price range from $0.70 to $0.98, or $0.79 per share at the mid-point. Our forecast is based on 80 ISMS units sold in 2006, 171 units sold in 2007,.... ........That estimate was based on 251 units with 40 mil shares outstanding at the time so divide the share price by 3 for today's estimate, nowhere near $2.00 you were claiming
-Using the $0.79 mid-point price and discounting at 40% (which reflects the many larger competitors on the market), we derive a 12-month Target Price of $0.47 per share..... again divide by 3, this estimate took into consideration the contracts already signed waiting to be filled.
-"SpiceJet asked Star Navigation to accelerate the installation of the ISMS units from a period of 36 to 42 months to 18 to 24 months"......... Like I said it takes a long time to complete installs.
http://www.eresearch.ca/_report/STA_100305.pdf ti came up with this link a couple of years ago which he graciously shared.
It might surprise you, but some people are willing and capable of doing some in depth DD to try and develop a reasonable opinion of how things might work, it's been very easy comparing two virtually identical models. I find it sad that so many people rely on cryptic posted messages in order to make their investment decisions. Too few take an active role in managing their investments these days, they just rely on these boards for info. I did that a twice, cost me some money. That was my fault for not verifying things and looking for facts, won't do that again. It's so important for everybody to do their own DD and verify what they read.
Take your DD BL, how much effort have you put into learning about the marketing, the business model, financing, what the market is, etc? I know you've worked hard, you've posted plenty about the differences in the technology, I've tried repeatedly to find some info on the subject, other then the patents I keep coming up blank. Yet you seem to have so much knowledge on the subject, maybe you can post some links or whatever you have for us to check out.
Told you before and I stand by it, if the right news comes out I'll be a buyer but for now I sit, watch and keep learning about both business, I have enough info to press the buy button when the time comes. Some of that is of course thanks to you BL, you've been very helpful sharing what you know.
Good health.
