i think a good indication of future inflation is the us treasury yield curve. long term rates have risen sharply in the past few weeks as investors have finally gotten a whiff of the inflation to come. despite the fed's efforts to buy t-bonds, the steepness of the curve indicates inflation is on the way. i don't think there is any likelihood of inflation of only 3-5% next year, even using the official government figures that exclude food, energy, and anything else that became more expensive.

sorry about the formatting. i've tried to edit it, but it just doesn't want to format properly.