Welcome To The 300 Club HUB On AGORACOM

We may not make much money, but we sure have a lot of fun!

Free
Message: Analysis of CIGA Kevin's posting from jsmineset mailbox

The price of gold in Yuan is the equivalent of $1380 USD.

 

To me the Chinese appear to have made a recent shift from maintaining a stable yuan to USD ratio to maintaining a stable Yuan to Gold priced in Yuan level. In other words they could be pushing the gold price up. Of course the paper fantasy world with a 92:1 paper contracts ratio managed in the US results in the price that is desirable to the US. $1312

 

Mathematically: Yuan Gold (XAUCNY) x Chinese Yuan (CNYUSD) = $US Gold Price

 

Two points to note ... with the recent news of numerous central banks increasing gold reserves worldwide, shifting away from the USD, the Chinese can argue that the value of the yuan is not being suppressed to mitigate the effects of tariffs being imposed, but rather a sound economic approach to both the rising increase in central bank purchasing of gold and based upon the price the Chinese population would have to pay to acquire an ounce of physical gold. In a sense China is saying as of some date we are decoupling the US valuation of gold from ours and attempting to forcing the trade relationship between the countries to be based upon the US$ being backed by gold (Bretton Woods agreement).

 

If this continues, the Yuan devaluation (while gold appreciates everywhere but America) to the US$ will effectively not impact the exports to the US, but will certainly make US imports at a higher cost to its citizens causing increased inflation and probably less demand. The US CANNOT want this.

 

China’s saving minded middle class households who have plowed some 17,000 MT or 530 million ounces of physical gold since restrictions were lifted in 2008.

 

That is more than twice what the US claims is its reserves which although unlikely to be expropriated ( after all China is not the US) positions the citizens to be much better off if fiat currencies dollar and yuan implode.

 

Average Chinese wealth has enjoyed a 10% annual increase since 2008 while the median Chinese household has enjoyed a lesser yet respectable 7% annual increase

 

Can't say that about the US or OZ.

 


“At the end of the war and beginning of Bretton Woods system the U.S. gold stock amounted to $20B roughly 60% of total official central bank gold reserves and amounted to 4x the value of total dollar reserves of all foreign central banks and foreign dollar deposits.” Doing that today for the US would be impossible with only 8,133 MT or 261.5M ounces unless it were valued at 4x the $6.7T of allocated and unallocated US dollar exchange value held by foreign central banks. That would require the value of 8,133 MT of US gold to be worth $26.8T or $100,000/oz.

 

1/10th still means $10,00 gold.

 


True debt to GDP ratio for China’s national debt up to 92.8%

 


China’s external debt is at 13 percent of GDP. And is very low by world standards. External debt refers to the total amount of public and private debt owed to non-resident individuals and entities. Foreigners own a tiny 3 percent of China’s debt.

 

Most Chinese debt is held in China.

 


Japan’s external debt is 74 percent of GDP. It’s 126 percent in Australia, 97 percent in the U.S., 38 percent in Brazil, and 24 percent in India (and the U.S. 30%+).

Can you say cuirrencty resets unavoidable?

China Domestic Gold Production amounted to 426 MT or 13.7m oz in 2017 accounting for 13.03% of global gold production, making China the world’s largest gold producing nation for the 11th consecutive year.

None of it is exported outside of China ... 400 tonnes for 11 years means 4400 tons then what they have bought from other countries ... to say the amount of gold of China is greater than the amount of gold in the US would be a dramatic understatement.

 

If PBOC/SAFE true current gold reserves were to amount to 60% of all central bank reserves like the US had in 1945 or even 70% like the US had as late as 1957, some 20,000 MT seems reasonable, and it also amounts to slightly more than the Chinese private sector’s 17,000 MT. If those 20,000 MT or 643 million ounces had a value of 4x external Yuan debt, it would need to be valued at $6.8T or US Gold $10,575. That means either a stable Chinese Yuan (CNYUSD) and an 7x increase in Yuan Gold (XAUCNY) or a combination thereof. Makes no difference to $US Gold because mathematically: Yuan Gold (XAUCNY) x Chinese Yuan (CNYUSD) = $US Gold Price.

 

Interesting 1/10 th of what the US$ price needs to be ... I think the math for a US$/economic reset is further supported. 

One can only hope it is orderly.

orgy

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply