What to Expect in the Markets This Week

Markets eneded the week up, with the S&P 500 returning 2.8%. The returns were broad across sectors with 10 out of the 11 S&P sectors ending the week higher. The sole sector left out was the energy sector. The benchmark ETF for the sector, XLE, had a total return of -4.6% for the week. Energy stocks fell in tandem with oil prices due to pessimism about demand due to the increasing spread of the COVID-19 as more infectious strains increased transmission of the virus. In addition, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase in gasoline stockpiles indicating lower than expected demand over Easter weekend.

The best performing sector was the tech sector. That sector's benchmark ETF, XLK, produced a mirror image of the returns of XLE, returning 4.6% for the week, pulled higher by strong performance from Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) this week. Amazon (AMZN), over in the consumer discretionary sector also rose significantly this week after workers at its Bessemer, Alabama warehouse fulfillment center voted not to form a union.

This week we're looking at big bank earnings, Coinbase's direct listing, and March U.S. retail sales. But first, let's see how different asset classes have been doing.

Events Next Week

Monday, April 12:

• Eurozone Retail Sales (February).
• Indian Consumer Price Index (CPI) (February).
• Chinese Trade Balance (March).

Tuesday, April 13:

• U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Estimate (February).
• U.K. Industrial Production (February).
• U.K. Manufacturing Production (February).
• U.K. Trade Balance (February).
• German ZEW Economic Sentiment (April).
• Brazilian Retail Sales (February).
• U.S. CPI (March).

Wednesday, April 14:

• Market Holiday in India for Ambedkar Jayanti.
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC), and Goldman Sachs Group. (GS) Announce Earnings.
• Cryptocurrency Exchange Operation Coinbase Goes Public Through Direct Listing.
• Indian Wholesale Price Index (WPI) (March).
• Eurozone Industrial Production (February).
• U.K. Labor Productivity (Q4).
• U.S. Export and Import Prices Indexes (March).
• Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey.
• U.S. Federal Reserve Beige Book.

Thursday, April 15:

• Bank of American (BAC), Delta Air Lines (DAL)
• German CPI (March).
• French CPI (March).
• Italian CPI (March).
• U.S. Core Retail (March).
• U.S. New York Empire State Manufacturing Index (April).
• U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (April).
• U.S. Retail Sales (March).
• U.S. Industrial Production (March).
• U.S. Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (February).
• Chinese GDP (Q1).
• Chinese Industrial Production (March).
• Chinese Unemployment Rate (March).

Friday, April 16:

• Eurozone CPI (March).
• Eurozone Trade Balance (February).
• U.S. Building Permits (March).
• U.S. Housing Starts (March).
• U.S. Preliminary Michigan Consumer Expectations and Sentiments (April).

A Different Kind of Earnings Season 

First quarter report cards will start coming in next week, and the outlook couldn't be more different from a year ago. Most companies that survived the past 12 months are better off in terms of their balance sheets and their prospects.

Overall, S&P 500 earnings are expected to have jumped 25% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to Institutional Brokers' Estimate System (IBES) data cited by Reuters. That would be the biggest quarterly increase since 2018 when the Trump administration enacted the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

Big banks will be among the first to report results next week, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo. The net interest margins have been rising along with interest rates, driving the financial giants' bottom lines. Bank stocks have been among the best performers in 2021 as more spending and rising rates are a great recipe for growing profits.

Coinbase's Direct Listing

Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange in North America, plans to go public on April 14 via a direct listing. Investors have been waiting for this one, as it is the first crypto exchange to sell shares to the public.

The company is selling 114.9 million shares directly to the public, according to its S-1 filing with the SEC. It plans to reveal a reference price for shares a day before trading begins, but analysts have valued the company anywhere from $70 billion to $100 billion. The company said it has 56 million verified accounts in its filing, and it reported revenue of $1.8 billion in the last quarter, with net income of approximately $730 million to $800 million. 

Retail Sales and Consumer Confidence

We'll also get reports on retail sales for the U.S. and Europe next week. In the U.S., we'll be paying attention to whether sales picked up from January and February, especially after the most recent round of stimulus checks was issued. Are consumers spending, saving, or investing that extra cash? 

We'll also get a preliminary report on U.S. consumer confidence and expectations for April. Spending expectations are sky-high, given the success of the vaccine rollout and the reopening of the economy. Are consumers feeling that too?