Stock market volatility will ease, indexes will rise in 2009: TD Waterhouse

TORONTO - Analysts are predicting that volatility in the capital markets will continue in the "near term" and won't start to ease until the second half of 2009.

"Looking ahead to 2009, the key questions on the minds of investors are when the heavy volatility will end, what the 'floor level' of the current bear market will be, and when will stocks begin to recover," Bob Gorman, chief portfolio strategist at TD Waterhouse, said in releasing the new outlook.

Among Gorman predictions: the Toronto stock market is "bottoming in this range" and will advance next year.

Benjamin Tal, an analyst with CIBC, says his bank's official forecast "is calling for some sort of a rebound, especially in the second half of 2009."

But "we don't think the (stock) prices will go back to where they were anytime soon," he said. "Our target is in the neighourhood of 12,000 ... To get to 15,000 will take a long time."

The Toronto Stock Exchange has plunged more than 40 per cent since it surpassed 15,000 in mid-June. Over the past few trading session it has been hovering in the 8,000 to 9,000 range.

Stock markets around the world have also tumbled, shedding trillions of dollars in value.

A year ago, TD Bank's brokerage division said a recession and a bear market were unlikely in 2008.