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Message: ZINC-Major market developments in December

LONDON | Fri Jan 13, 2012 8:22am EST

LONDON Jan 13 (Reuters) - Zinc prices fell in December and the supply surplus will continue to weigh on sentiment, preventing moves higher in the near term.

"The surplus market is now a lot more visible than it was and stocks are continuing to move up," said Graham Deller of industry consultants CRU Group.

Deller expected $1,900/1,950 to act as a ceiling on the market in the next few months as inventories maintained a general uptrend.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-months zinc price was last indicated at $1,950 a tonne.

"Given the surplus of above ground stocks, prices really aren't going to go anywhere in the next two to three months," said Carl Firman, analyst at Virtual Metals.

This view was shared by Neil Buxton of Thomson Reuters GFMS.

"It's difficult to see what will drive prices higher. Significant growth in production is beginning to slow, but it's not of the order of magnitude to have a significant impact on the market balance or prices," he said.

Below are some of the more significant recent developments in production, stocks and prices that may influence the direction of the market in 2012.

PRODUCTION

Dec 22 - Noranda Income Fund said workers at its Valleyfield zinc smelter in Canada voted to ratify a new collective labour deal.

Dec 21 - Hecla Mining Co said it expected to resume production at its Lucky Friday silver-lead-zinc mine in Idaho by the end of February. The mine was closed the previous week following a rock burst.

Dec 15 - South African miner Exxaro said it had sold its 50 percent stake in the Rosh Pinah zinc-lead mine in Namibia to Glencore for an undisclosed amount. The diversified miner also said Glencore had acquired a further 30 percent stake in the mine from other shareholders, bringing its total stake to 80.08 percent.

Dec 14 - The global zinc market was in surplus by 308,000 tonnes in the first 10 months of the year, according to the International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG). Latest figures show global refined zinc use was 10.513 million tonnes in January to October, up from 10.382 million in the same period last year. World refined zinc output was 10.821 million tonnes, compared with 10.595 million a year earlier.

Dec 12 - China produced 4,826,000 tonnes of refined zinc in the first 11 months of 2011, up 3.4 percent from the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Output of mined zinc rose by 19.4 percent over the same period to reach 3,973,000 tonnes.

Dec 12 - China-based Minmetals said on Monday operations could start at its Dugald River zinc mine in Australia in 2014, a year before its massive Century mine closes permanently with the loss of a half-a-million tonnes of metal per year. It said its board had approved A$157 million in pre-development work for the new mine ahead of making a final investment decision. Minmetals expects the lode to yield 200,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate annually over a 22-year operating life.

Dec 9 - Canadian Zinc Corp said it received an environmental approval for its flagship Prairie Creek zinc-lead-silver mine in Canada's Northwest Territories.

PRICES

Zinc prices finished December at $1,845 a tonne, down from $2,071 the previous month.

Downward pressure held sway throughout the first half of the month as concerns for global economic prospects and a potential negative impact on demand tended to weigh.

The market languished around those lower levels and by Dec. 28 it had fallen to $1,807, its lowest in around two months as concerns grew over an economic slowdown in China.

The mood improved slightly in the early part of January though, helped by copper's rise to its highest more than two months as eurozone debt fears eased.

STOCKS

The downtrend in LME zinc stocks, which had been in place since early August, was halted abruptly in early December, following large deliveries into warehouses in New Orleans.

Inventories finished the month at 820,300 tonnes from 741,350 tonnes at the end of November and 701,725 tonnes a year earlier.

At one point they reached 826,825 tonnes, their highest in around two months, but still well short of levels close to 900,000 tonnes reached in July when they were at their highest in over 16 years.

LME stocks at the end of December equated to almost 24 days of demand.

Deliverable Shanghai warehouse stocks stood at 364,186 tonnes at the end of December, little changed from 368,939 tonnes in November.

Global commercial stocks of zinc at the end of October were 1,848,600 tonnes or 7.0 weeks of demand, up from 1,909,500 tonnes or 7.5 weeks the previous month and from 1,562,000 tonnes or 7.0 weeks at the end of last year, according to the ILZSG.

(3000 Xtra users can access Reuters Metal Production Database (MPD) by clicking on: here) (Compiled by Karen Norton)

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