Take over sooner than later imo
posted on May 22, 2008 07:46PM
Camino Rojo Mexico : In-situ - 4.0 million ounces gold; 68.32 million ounces of silver.
All in my opinion, please do your own DD. Not investment advice.
I think at this point its pretty easy to extrapolate 10m plus ounces from the assays received to date. The best part being that at the rate they are drilling this out, enough data for an inferred 43-101 compliant resource could be attained within the next two months provided they finally find the boundaries of the deposit of course. Not a bad problem to have when the only thing stopping you from being able to count the ounces is that the deposit keeps growing beyond what you think is its limits. Case in point was CRD 9 from the May 1st NR jumping the fault to the west and then again today with holes 53, 55, 58 and 60 surprising us to the east.
In my opinion with all majors able to model what we have found to date at Represa, we could litteraly be only a few key holes away from blowing the lid off this thing. The step-outs to the east and west do show us that significant economic mineralization exists now over 900m of strike. In the middle @ line 244,400E we know the deposit is 300m wide by 450m deep. We know these measurements hold up well through that middle section of about 500m of strike. What we don't know is what it does to the west and to the east size wise.
I maintain that we will be bought out minutes after the drills show that similiar dimensions to what we have on line 244,400E can be found over say 1500m of strike. That would give us just over 550million tonnes and close to 17million ounces of gold given IF the grades we've seen to date hold throughout. It's a big IF, but in my opinion a probable if given what the mineralization has shown us thus far. The best part here is that 30 or so strategic holes could define the resource we need. In other words we could be there in less that a month.
Another development that would lead to an instant offer from a major in my opinion would be one successful hole into a big anomaly like the one we apparently have 15kms away, showing 200m+ of 1 gram+. This would show that we're truly in elephant country leaving the majors knowing that every hole from that day on would just mean a higher eventual price tag.
Same goes for the possibility of hole 57 today:
Diamondfields discovered the Voisey's Bay nickel-copper deposit in Labrador in October 1994 when the stock was trading at $4. By late 1996 Inco had bought Diamondfields at the pre-split equivalent price of $160 for a total purchase cost of $4 billion.
Arequipa traded as low as $0.50 while conducting grassroots exploration in Peru before it discovered the Pierina gold deposit in late 1995. Within a year Barrick had bought out Arequipa at $30 for a total cost of $1 billion.
Dia Met was trading at $0.60 in 1991 while exploring for diamonds in Canada's Arctic in partnership with BHP. After putting the Ekati diamond mine into production BHP bought out Dia Met at a pre-split equivalent price of $60 that valued the project at $2 billion.
Canico traded as low as $1 in 2002 while trying to demonstrate that the Onca Puma nickel laterite deposit in Brazil was economic. In February 2006 CVRD bought Canico in a $21 per share cash bid that valued the project at $931 million.
Virginia Gold conducted grassroots exploration in Quebec for years before discovering the Eleonore gold deposit in June 2004 while the stock was trading at $1. In February 2006 Goldcorp acquired Virginia at $14 in a transaction that valued Eleonore at $750 million.
Western Silver traded at $0.55 in late 2001 while exploring its Penasquito silver-gold-zinc deposit in Mexico. On May 3, 2006 Glamis Gold acquired Western Silver at $33 in a transaction that valued Penasquito at $1.7 billion."