A fairly large short position developed on several concepts that never bore out:
That the whole market would tank, concept ran continuously into 2010.Never happened
That USD would go back to 1.20 to the euro. Irrelevant, but also never happened.
That the recession would be double dip. Has not happened (yet at least)
That Chinese economy would collapse like a cheap suitcase. Is not happening. Even if the US goes broke trying , it may never happen.
That CLF was just another commodity outfit with no dynamics. Very wrong. Now a darling of the pundits. Went to SP500, forcing major buys. Apparently a lot of shorts did not hear the bells ringing or were deaf listening to Kudlow too often.
That the iron ore guys would cave in on pricing to China.
This last one was dispelled this week and broke the camel's back for shorts.
Many perhaps most shorts will just end the quarter short, and hope to cover later.
The really dumb shorts are still shorting. The masochistic types. That is especially good for longs.
The same dumbos think an upwardly valued Yuan/USD will help by reversing the mythical "risk trade" . I will be totally levered up on CLF if I see the Chinese having even more USD to buy our ore. Looks like Gartman has figured it out.
Unless CLF makes a huge blunder, they are the pick of the base metals litter for a couple years, with built in generic growth and a fairly modest capital base.