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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: ‘Opec may cut output to defend $80 a barrel’

Hi Martin.

No response to the posters stance ,opinion or analysis does not indicate the forum acceptance. Some opinions and stance are so obviously wrong that they do not require response.

As an example your last CLL NAVPS numbers ($7.67) .The only good number you had was the PDP share in the CLL NAV at $0.56. Your mistake was to apply the net present value for a revenue using 6% for 25 years to CLL conventional assets. This lead you to wrong conclusions. (Total CLL conventional --LUKE,Refinery,PDP--NAVPS is about $1.6).

The latest annalist reports have CLL NAVPS just below $5. This not indicate that CLL SP should trade at no discount to the NAVPS. In the oilsand universe some are trading at 40 to 50% discount to NAV.

Going to the point from your last post. It does not look like CLL is under accumulation by anybody. Long and mid term charts shows the distribution of shares. Institutional holding are staying at 8% for long time. Most of them are related to index funds. Some largest CLL holders:

ISHARES CDN ENERGY SECTOR INDEX FUND 469,270 sh

IG AGF CANADIAN DIVERSIFIED GROWTH FUND 408,400 sh

TD EMERALD CANADIAN EQUITY INDEX FUND 403,400 sh

CLAYMORE OIL SANDS SECTOR FUND 342,798 sh

As you can see this is not significant number of shares. Every institution which accumulates more then 10% has to report this to the TSX. There is no conspiracy here just some institutional day traders backup by good software.

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